The World Series gets going on Friday night with Game 1 between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Our experts have come through with four World Series best bets, featuring a pick on the first five innings (F5) moneyline and No Runs First Inning (NRFI), plus Yankees and Dodgers props for Enrique Hernandez and Anthony Volpe.
Let’s get into our MLB picks for Dodgers vs Yankees World Series Game 1.
World Series Best Bets, Props, NRFI Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Dodgers vs Yankees Game 1. Click on the team logos below to navigate to a specific World Series best bet.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
John Feltman's First Five Innings (F5) Best Bet
By John Feltman
Game 1 of the Fall Classic features a great pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty. Most of the bets are flowing in on the Dodgers, which is understandable given their home-field advantage and recent offensive outburst in the NLCS.
But I think the market has gone a tad too far.
Cole has outstanding career numbers against the Dodgers. He has a .226 batting average against current Dodgers hitters, including Freddie Freeman's good numbers. I mention Freeman because he is unhealthy and many believe he is just playing on one good leg at the moment.
Freeman is 7-for-20 lifetime against Cole, so if you take him out of the equation, that batting average against Cole gets even lower. Typically, I'd be concerned with a layoff for starting pitchers, but with Cole's elbow problems at the start of the season, I think the rest he's had is going to benefit him big time.
Another guy who probably benefits from the time off is Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who hit over .400 in the ALCS coming off two broken fingers — and he's previously owned Flaherty.
Rizzo is batting .429 against Flaherty with 3 HRs. The Yankees overall are batting over .300 against the Dodgers' Game 1 starter, so I expect the offense to strike early in the game.
Personally, I believe the Yankees will win the game outright, but to eliminate any bullpen variance, I think they should have the lead after five innings tonight. The Dodgers bullpen has been outstanding, so it is possible that they will have the upper hand once Flaherty exits the game.
Also, I think the time off will impact the Dodgers more than the Yankees, considering how hot their offense was in the NLCS. Offenses hate being out of rhythm when they are clicking, so that adds even more of an advantage to Cole.
Lastly, the Dodgers destroyed left-handed pitching in 2024 but struggled against right-handed pitchers. They hit .231 against righties during the regular season, and that was with a healthy Freddie Freeman.
Pick: Yankees First Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+102)
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Billy Ward's Yankees vs Dodgers NRFI Pick
By Billy Ward
With both World Series teams getting four days off, that means the aces are on the mound for Game 1. At least, what passes for an "ace" for both clubs, given their relatively turbulent pitching rotations this season.
While both Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty come into the game with ERAs over 3.00 on the season, there’s some good news. Both have been much better early in games.
Cole’s first time through the order ERA is under 2.00; he's over 4.00 his second and third time around. Flaherty has ERA and xFIP numbers under 3.00 his first two times through the order, but falls apart if and when he faces a lineup a third time.
Plus, we have the added benefit of pitchers throwing on what’s effectively their standard schedule, while bats could take a minute to wake up given the layoff.
I’m not projecting a NRFI massive edge here, but I’d bet it down to -120.
Pick: No Runs First Inning (NRFI) (-113; Play to -120)
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D.J. James' Dodgers Player Prop Bet
By D.J. James
Enrique Hernández has been a Dodgers playoff legend.
The 33-year-old utility player only had a .654 OPS in the regular season with a 6.9% walk rate and 19.6% strikeout rate. That said, his Average Exit Velocity was 89.6 mph, which was his highest mark since 2021. His Hard-Hit Rate and Chase Rate were also above average.
In addition, Hernández had an .821 OPS in September with a .300+ AVG, so he was on the upswing at the right time. This justifies why he already has 10 hits off right-handed pitching in the playoffs.
Gerrit Cole will be throwing for the Yankees in Game 1. He had a below average ground-ball rate and Hard-Hit Rate in the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity was nearly 90 mph, and he walked over 7% of batters.
In the postseason, he had his worst start against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS. He allowed 10 baserunners in fewer than five innings and was fortunate to escape with just two earned runs.
The Yankees bullpen has done well in the playoffs. But while they may have a sub-3.00 ERA, their xFIP is a run higher at 4.00. They also have a walk rate above 12% and strikeout rate under 24%.
Pick: Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 Total Bases (-160; Play to -190)
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Tony Sartori's Yankees Player Prop Pick
By Tony Sartori
The Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Jack Flaherty, and he should serve as a good candidate to back in this Game 1 matchup.
Over 28 regular season starts, the right-hander posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His underlying metrics were equally strong as Flaherty ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
With that said, his greatest attribute was the ability to retire hitters via punchout. Flaherty ranked in the 72nd percentile in chase rate, 91st percentile in whiff rate and 90th in strikeout rate.
That brings us to Anthony Volpe, who is one of the worst batters in the Yankees lineup.
He posted a .243 average this season, and his analytics are even worse. Volpe ranked in the bottom third of the league in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The shortstop also ranked in the bottom half of the league in both chase and strikeout rate, which makes him a bad matchup against Flaherty. Subsequently, Volpe is 0-for-2 against the right-hander with a strikeout.
Speaking of right-handers, Volpe's average dropped even further when facing them this season.
Pick: Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 Hits (+120; Play to +115)
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