The 2024 MLB World Series begins on Friday night when the National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the American League champion New York Yankees for Game 1 at Dodger Stadium.
Throughout the MLB playoffs, I've provided a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games. Below, I will address how to handle betting on the World Series using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Let's talk about my MLB betting picks — from series moneyline, series spread, series over/under, props and much more in my World Series Betting preview.
World Series Betting Preview
Below are my updated projections for the 2024 World Series:
World Series Moneyline & Correct Score
The New York Yankees are currently +110 (47.6% implied) or higher to win the World Series, with the Los Angeles Dodgers closer to -125 (55.6% implied) consensus favorites. I would bet the Yankees at -102 (50.5% implied) or better on the series moneyline before Game 1.
I would have set this series closer to a true coin flip at the start of the playoffs. However, my projection has moved toward the Yankees, with Freddie Freeman and Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty both playing at less than 100% for the Dodgers.
The most significant advantage that either team has over the other in this series is the Yankees' starting pitching depth and quality.
I'd project the Yankees as more significant favorites in Game 3 (projected 59.5%) or Game 4 (projected 56.3%) than I make the Dodgers at any point in this series (high of 53.5% in Games 2 and 6). Moreover, New York's bullpen is a bit more rested, tossing just 38 postseason innings (47% of its postseason innings), compared to 57 for Los Angeles (59% of its postseason innings).
Depending upon the book, I project value on three of the Yankees' exact results or correct score props.
- Yankees 4-0 (projected +1325, 7% implied vs. +1400, 6.67% implied at DraftKings) = +0.33% Edge
- Yankees 4-1 (projected +655, 13.3% implied vs. +700, 12.5% implied at ESPN Bet) = +0.8% Edge
- Yankees 4-2 (projected +509, 16.4% implied vs. +600, 14.3% implied at FanDuel) = +2.1% Edge
Of those three, the Yankees 4-2 correct score prop is the only one to surpass my actionable threshold (typically 2% compared to my projection). However, I'd lower the threshold to 1% in series prop markets and would need +550 (15.4% implied) or better to play the Yankees to win the series 4-2 (+600 at FanDuel) before Game 1.
That said, alternative ways exist to bet the Yankees to win the series in six games or fewer at an increased expected value.
World Series Spreads
Some prop bets are worded differently but express the same outcome. For example, Yankees -3.5 games or Dodgers -3.5 games are the same as betting those teams to win 4-0 in the exact result or correct score market, and if you're interested in either bet, check both lines.
The plus or minus +1.5 and 2.5 game bets require slightly reconfiguring the numbers I have already provided above.
The least significant edge in the series spread market matches the most significant edge in the correct score or exact result market.
Depending upon the book, I project actionable value on three of the Yankees' series spreads:
- Yankees +1.5 Games (projected -212, 68% implied vs. -175, 63.6% implied at ESPN BET) = +4.4% Edge
- Yankees -1.5 Games (projected +173, 36.6% implied vs. +195, 33.9% implied at DraftKings) = +2.7% Edge
- Yankees -2.5 Games (projected +393, 20.3% implied vs. +450, 18.2% implied at ESPN BET) = +2.1% Edge
Using the same 1% threshold, I'd set the price targets for those bets at -203, +181, and +418, respectively.
While the +1.5 games spread offers the most significant edge, I'm more inclined to lay games at plus money to encompass the Yankees' equity of winning in six games or fewer.
If you're only betting into this market — rather than the series moneyline — risk one unit on the Yankees +1.5 (-175), bet a quarter unit on their -1.5 games spread (+195) and closer to a tenth of a unit on their -2.5 games spread (+450).
World Series Total Games and Over/Under
Using my exact result projections from the prior section, we can easily extrapolate the odds of the series length — whether in terms of exact total games or for the series to go over or under a total number of games:
I'd be surprised if you find an actionable, let alone positive, edge on any of these props. I didn't show a single actionable bet in either category last season, and my projection for this season completely aligns with the betting market.
World Series Props
Among the 71 World Series MVP winners, 42 (59.2%) were hitters and 29 (40.8%) were pitchers, including three closers. However, 12 of the first 14 winners were pitchers, and the rate has declined drastically (to 30%) since.
Many Hall of Famers have won the award, including Sandy Koufax (x2), Bob Gibson (x2), Brooks Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Roberto Clemente, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Paul Molitor, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Randy Johnson.
Recent winners include perennial All-Stars like Corey Seager (2x), Stephen Strasburg, George Springer, Salvador Perez and Madison Bumgarner. Typically, name-brand talent takes home the hardware.
Still, there are several "off-the-radar" World Series MVPs throughout history, including rookie Jeremy Peña (2023), Jorge Soler (2022), Steve Pearce (2018), David Freese (2011), Scott Brosius (1998), Pat Borders (1992), Ray Knight (1986), etc.
It might be challenging for a non-superstar — anyone other than Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani or Mookie Betts — to take home the hardware in this high-profile World Series. However, I suspect these four players are worthy of MVP darts or player prop bets at long odds.
Gleyber Torres (+4000)
Hitting out of the leadoff spot for the away team, Torres projects to lead the series in plate appearances; he has nine runs this postseason, four more than any other Yankees hitter, and he's tied for the team lead in hits (11).
Given increased opportunities relative to the field, I like Torres to lead the series in hits (+1700 FanDuel), listed between 8th and 10th on the odds board, depending upon the book. If there were a market for most runs in the series, I'd bet Torres at +750 or higher.
I'd also take a small stab at Torres to win World Series MVP (+4000). He has carried a hot September (.333 avg., .859 OPS) into October (.297 avg., .832 OPS) and has served as the Yankees' offensive catalyst in the playoffs.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+5000)
After playing most of the playoffs in sub-55-degree temperatures, perhaps Chisholm, a native of the Bahamas who has spent most of his career in Miami, will warm up to the weather in Los Angeles.
Despite his postseason struggles (.147 avg, .481 OPS), Chisholm moved up to fourth and fifth in the Yankees batting order in the final three games of the ALCS — after hitting sixth earlier in the postseason — and could remain in a prime RBI spot for the World Series, with the Dodgers only using right-handed starting pitchers.
Chisholm already has nine postseason plate appearances with runners in scoring position (tied with Torres and Alex Verdugo) behind Giancarlo Stanton (12) and Austin Wells (10), who has also struggled in the playoffs and was moved down the order in favor of Chisholm.
With an improved lineup spot, Chisholm is an exciting long-shot selection for RBI Leader (+1500 at FanDuel) and worth considering for steals leader (+500 at DraftKings) and series MVP.
Gerrit Cole (+3300)
I've primarily been down on Cole this season. He has shown his worst underlying metrics (3.69 xERA, 17.9% K-B%%) since his final season in Pittsburgh (2017).
Still, Cole should have two head-to-head matchups with Jack Flaherty, whose velocity declined by two ticks (91.4 mph fastball) in Game 5 of the NLCS compared to his season-long average.
Flaherty averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball and 84.8 mph on his slider through August, but his velocity dipped to a season-low (91.8 and 83.8 mph) in his final two regular-season starts in September.
The velocity bounced back after 10 days of rest before the NLDS (93.8 mph and 84.7 mph) but dipped the second time through the order in Game 1 of the NLCS (five days of rest) — Flaherty only recorded two strikeouts (5.5%) against five walks (13.9%) in his final four turns through the Mets' lineup (36 batters).
With additional rest after the NLCS, Flaherty's arm might be in better shape the first time through the Yankees' order in Game 1.
Still, I'd expect diminishing velocity from Flaherty the longer he goes in this series. And if Cole can win both of his starts in a potential 4-1 or 4-2 series win for the Yankees, he'll have a chance at MVP honors.
Teoscar Hernandez (+2800)
Even if Freddie Freeman — hampered by an ankle injury — plays each game in the World Series, Teoscar Hernandez should bat fifth (behind Max Muncy) against righties and third in two potential matchups against Carlos Rodon, with the potential to move up to third or fourth against the Yankees' right-handed starters if Freeman sits.
Hernandez ranks fourth on the Dodgers with eight postseason RBI but leads the Dodgers in postseason plate appearances with runners in scoring position (18), ahead of Tommy Edman (15) and Mookie Betts (13).
Edman caught fire in the NLCS, but also hit cleanup against the Mets' trio of lefty starters; he'll bat lower in the order against the Yankees.
Bet Hernandez to lead the series in RBI (+1000), and consider his odds of winning series MVP.
World Series Props, Futures, Spreads
- Series Leader: Gleyber Torres, Most Hits (+1700, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Series Leader: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Most RBIs (+1500, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Series Leader: Teoscar Hernandez, Most RBIs (+1000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Series Moneyline: New York Yankees (+116, 1u) at FanDuel
- Series Spread: Yankees -1.5 Games (+195, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Series Spread: Yankees -2.5 Games (+450, 0.1u) at ESPN BET
- World Series MVP: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+5000, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- World Series MVP: Gerrit Cole (+3300, 0.05u) at FanDuel
- World Series MVP: Teoscar Hernandez (+2800, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- World Series MVP: Gleyber Torres (+4000, 0.05u) at Caesars Sportsbook
