Of the 70 World Series MVP winners, 41 (58.5%) were hitters, and 29 (41.5%) were pitchers, including three closers. However, 12 of the first 14 winners were pitchers, and the rate has declined.
Many Hall of Famers have won the award, including Sandy Koufax (x2), Bob Gibson (x2), Brooks Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Roberto Clemente, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, Paul Molitor, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and Randy Johnson.
Recent winners include perennial All-Stars like Stephen Strasburg, Corey Seager, George Springer, Salvador Perez and Madison Bumgarner. Typically, name-brand talent takes home the honors.
Still, there are several "off the radar" World Series MVPs throughout history, including rookie Jeremy Peña (2023), Jorge Soler (2022), Steve Pearce (2018), David Freese (2011), Scott Brosius (1998), Pat Borders (1992), Ray Knight (1986), etc.
I don't have a way to model the World Series MVP — so these are purely my thoughts based on reading the market, but I suspect these six players are worthy MVP stabs or player prop bets at long odds.
Nathan Eovaldi
+1800 at bet365
Eovaldi can start Games 1 and 5 and pitch in relief in Game 7 — as Jordan Montgomery did in the ALCS for Texas. It's the same plan Bruce Bochy used with Madison Bumgarner when he won the World Series MVP in 2014. Eovaldi could potentially start Games 4 and 7, both on short rest, but he has the potential to collect three wins in this series regardless.
Conversely, Torey Luvullo never considered using Zac Gallen out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the NLCS.
If I took a pitcher from Arizona, I'd look to Brandon Pfaaft (+6600), who has impressed in the postseason. Still, Pfaaft won't start until Game 3 or pitch more than twice in this series, and he'd need to be near-flawless in both starts.
Additionally, I'd take Eovaldi (+250 at Caesars) over Pfaaft (+700) or any other pitcher to lead the series in strikeouts.
Marcus Semien
+1600 at FanDuel
Hitting out of the leadoff spot, Semien projects to lead Texas in both plate appearances and runs scored. I expected Semien's pricing to be closer to +1000 — roughly where Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are.
While he's struggled to get hits in the playoffs thus far (.507 OPS), Semien has shown a strong plate approach (6 BB, 6 K in 58 plate appearances) and seems on the verge of busting out. Bet Semien to lead the series in hits (+950 at FanDuel and bet365).
Jonah Heim
+4500 at FanDuel
Like Eovaldi, Heim likely returned too early from injury as the Rangers made their postseason push. The switch-hitting catcher tore a tendon in his left wrist on July 26 and returned to action on August 13, but he posted a 62 wRC+ the rest of the way (4 HR) compared to a 118 wRC+ before the injury.
He appeared closer to total health in the ALCS while slugging a pair of homers — his first extra-base-hits since September 20 — and remains in a prime RBI spot in the Rangers' lineup.
Additionally, Heim is important in controlling the Diamondbacks' running game. He ranked tied for second among all catchers with five Defensive Runs Saved against stolen bases this season.
I considered betting on the Rangers DH, Mitch Garver (+3000), who regularly hits fifth, but he took a pitch off the ribs in Game 7 in Houston and is still experiencing discomfort.
Gabriel Moreno
+2000 at bet365
Arizona's rookie was the only catcher better than Heim at cutting down stolen base attempts this season (+7 DRS). He's also hit third for the Diamondbacks throughout the playoffs and leads the team with 9 RBIs.
Bet Moreno to lead the World Series series in RBI (+2500); Arizona has regularly set up hit-to-contact opportunities with speedsters Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte on the basepaths.
Christian Walker
+2000 at FanDuel
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
+4000 at bet365
If Arizona steals this series, it will likely need to match the Rangers' power output, and its two best home run hitters will likely need to contribute.
I'd consider either of these sluggers to lead the series either in home runs (+1000 and +2000, respectively), RBIs (+1100 and +2000, respectively), or total bases (+1200 and +2200, respectively). Still, you can get better odds on either in the MVP market.
