Phillies vs. Astros World Series Odds
| Phillies Series Price | +150 |
| Astros Series Price | -180 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Friday, Oct. 28, FOX
- Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 29, FOX
- Game 3: Monday, Oct. 31, FOX
- Game 4: Tuesday, Nov. 1, FOX
- Game 5: Wednesday, Nov. 2, FOX (if necessary)
- Game 6: Friday, Nov. 4, FOX (if necessary)
- Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 5, FOX (if necessary)
Philadelphia Phillies
- Regular Season Record: 87-75
- Pythagorean Record: 87-75
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 106 (10th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.54 (4th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.98 (19th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
Kyle Schwarber led the league in home props/runs-scored">runs. Bryce Harper put up another monster season (140 wRC+), although he played mostly through injuries. J.T. Realmuto was, again, one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. Aaron Nola finished second in the NL in fWAR (5.9) and Zack Wheeler finished 11th (4.2). Both pitchers looked like aces at times this year.
Yet the Phillies scraped by, finishing third in the NL East and third in the wild-card race. Their record was largely carried by a 16-3 record against the Nationals. The Phillies went 70-73 with a +12-run differential against everyone else, including 5-14 against the Mets and 8-11 against the Nationals.
The Phillies started the season horrendously, but picked themselves up and built momentum the rest of the way to clinch the franchise’s first postseason berth in 11 years.
Once there, the Phillies caught fire. They beat the Cardinals in two games in the Wild Card Round, then the division-rival Braves in four games in the Division Series.
In the NLCS, Philadelphia beat San Diego in five games to reach its first World Series since 2009.
Offense
This should be a very scary offense.
The key is Nick Castellanos. This is a guy who has posted a wRC+ above 120 in three of his past four seasons, including a 139 mark last year.
What happened to that guy?
That guy stopped hitting the curve. While his xwOBA on fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches all dropped about the same, his exit velocity dropped significantly more on the latter two.
That has led to a massive drop in his overall production.
However, Castellanos might be gearing up just in time for a postseason run. He’s slashed .310/.346/.465 with an .811 OPS since August 1st. He’s beginning to hit for average again and has smacked five dingers in the 34 games since.
If Castellanos becomes the guy we expected him to be at the beginning of the season, that gives the Phillies six plus-hitters. The top half of the lineup consists of …
- Bryce Harper (140 OPS+)
- Kyle Schwarber (130 OPS+)
- J.T. Realmuto (129 OPS+)
- Rhys Hoskins (123 OPS+)
The lineup is a scary on and is likely as productive and powerful as any lineup in baseball.
Also, look out for the youngster, Bryson Stott. The rookie had a slow start, but has excellent bat-to-ball skills and has hit .300 since August. He has yet to flash the power, but on-base skill is never a bad thing in a postseason series.
Rotation
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are as good of a one-two punch as Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.
That’s a hot take, probably too hot of a take. However, it suggests just how high I am on these two.
Nola is one of the best pitchers in the game. Only Miami’s Sandy Alcantara had more starts of seven or more innings pitched and two or fewer runs allowed than Nola, who had 11. He’s a real workhorse who may have gotten a little unlucky (3.25 ERA, 2.74 xERA).
Wheeler didn’t put together the same outing he did last year, but putting up an ERA under 2.85 over 150 innings is very solid.
Wheeler led the league in innings last season. Nola finished second in innings pitched this year. These two can pitch seven-to-nine innings of near-shutout ball on any given night.
However, depth is a major issue. The back-half of the rotation will consist of Ranger Suarez, Kyle Gibson and Bailey Falter.
Suarez took a huge step back this season. Gibson hasn’t been the same pitcher since leaving Texas. Falter is just 25 and working his way into the rotation.
Bullpen
The Phillies did finish fourth in the National League in reliever fWAR this season, but I’m not excited to back the Phillies at the end of the game.
The Phillies' reliever ERA this season was 4.24, which finished 23rd among all MLB teams. The Phillies reliever xFIP was slightly better, but not by much (3.97). I wouldn’t expect much positive regression.
They picked up Corey Knebel from the Dodgers and slid him into the closer role, where he picked up 12 saves. But he was hurt in early August and shouldn’t be returning. Brad Hand was another offseason pickup, but he’s been hurt and I can tell you Phillies fans are not excited for his return.
The key to this bullpen will be the duo of Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, who combined for 2.6 fWAR this season.
Jose Alvarado is a menace. He posted a 38% strikeout rate and a 56% ground-ball rate this season. His 2.53 xERA, 1.91 FIP and 2.16 xFIP show he’s due for plenty of positive regression and his 3.18 ERA was driven by a .340 BABIP.
Dominguez has a monster fastball. It travels 98 mph on average and ranks above the 75th percentile in spin rate. But he gets hit hard often (46.2% hard-hit rate, 4th percentile) and needs to avoid barrels to be effective. –Tanner McGrath
Houston Astros
- Regular Season Record: 106-56
- Pythagorean Record: 106-56
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 112 (6th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.61 (7th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.45 (1st)
How They Got Here
The Astros steamrolled through the American League West yet again, becoming the first team to clinch its division and winning it outright by 16 games.
With 106 wins, the Astros used a second-half surge to bypass the Yankees for the top spot in the American League and gained home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.
Once the postseason began, the Astros didn't miss a beat. Despite all three games of the ALDS being close, Houston beat the division-rival Mariners in three-straight games. In the ALCS, the Astros swept the Yankees in four straight, and now enter the World Series having not lost a game since the regular season.
Offense
Despite losing yet another key piece of their World Series core in Carlos Correa to free agency, the Astros did not miss a beat. Their 112 wRC+ ranked sixth in the majors and while they were middle-of-the-pack from an average perspective, they still got on base at a top-10 clip.
Without Correa or George Springer, and with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman ageing, the Astros’ most feared hitter became Yordan Alvarez, who neared 40 home runs while topping a .300/.400/.600 split.
Altuve rebounded with another All-Star-caliber season, Bregman had a monster second half, and Kyle Tucker proved a threat with his bat, glove and on the base paths.
Rotation
American League Cy Young frontrunner Justin Verlander tops the rotation with a sub-2.00 ERA, and while he doesn’t strike out hitters in the same fashion he did in his prime, he’s still one of the most feared pitchers on the planet with a boatload of postseason experience to boot.
Behind him are young studs Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, while the likes of Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy will be relied upon as it necessitates throughout the postseason.
Bullpen
Ryan Pressly anchors the bullpen at the back-end, notching 33 saves while putting up a sub-3.00 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates remain superb, and next to him the Astros can call on Hector Neris, Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu and Ryne Stanek to help bridge the gap between the starters and the ninth inning. –Collin Whitchurch
