The Philadelphia Phillies enter Game 4 of the World Series with a 2-1 lead after Tuesday night's 7-0 victory over the Houston Astros.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Jeremy Pena Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5
We are going to fade a couple of Houston hitters in this game as they are slated to go against right-hander Aaron Nola. If there was ever an opportunity to buy low on someone, it would be Nola in this game.
Through four playoff starts, the right-hander possesses a troubling 4.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. After getting rocked in back-to-back starts, Nola should return to form on his home diamond.
In the regular season, his 32-start sample size is much more revealing about the caliber of pitcher he is as Nola posted a 3.25 EA and 0.96 WHIP. His metrics were just as outstanding as he produced a .259 xwOBA, .211 xBA and .340 xSLG.
The first Astros hitter we are fading is rookie infielder Jeremy Pena. While Pena has been a stud throughout the postseason, now is a good time to sell high considering who he is going against.
Across five career plate appearances against Nola, Pena is just 1-for-5 with four strikeouts. The metrics across those five at-bats suggest even further regression as he generated a .102 xBA, .185 xSLG and .121 xwOBA.
Pena is due for some regression at the plate, as the larger sample size from the regular season suggests that this postseason hitting surge is not sustainable. This year, he produced a mere .300 xwOBA, .248 xBA and .397 xSLG.
These metrics back up the regression claim, especially considering that his splits have made around a 25% jump in the postseason. Additionally, Pena’s splits in the regular season took a dip when facing right-handed pitching as he posted a .241 BA, .402 SLG, and .675 OPS.
Jose Altuve Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5
The other Houston hitter we are fading is Jose Altuve, who looks lost at the plate this postseason. Through 10 postseason games, Altuve has posted a troubling .156 BA, .200 SLG and .408 OPS.
Going under this total in seven of his 10 playoff games, we should expect another tough outing against Nola. In his career against the right-hander, Altuve is 2-for-8 with three strikeouts.
The metrics across those eight at-bats suggest even further regression as he has produced a .127 xBA, .181 xSLG, and .133 xwOBA. Like Pena, Altuve’s splits dropped when facing right-handed pitching during the regular season as he produced a .285/.487/.860 slash line.
While those numbers are still very strong, they are not nearly as good as his splits against left-handed pitching. In a non-favorable matchup against a pitcher due for positive regression, I would be shocked if this is the game where Altuve turns it around.
Cristian Javier Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 26.5
While we are fading some of Houston's bats, we are going to back their starting pitcher: right-hander Cristian Javier. To end the regular season, Javier was virtually untouchable.
Over his final five starts of the regular season, Javier went 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA. and 0.54 WHIP. Throughout the season, he produced some of the best metrics in all of baseball with a .244 xwOBA, .168 xBA and .286 xSLG.
This strong pitching has continued into the postseason as well. Through two playoff appearances, the right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.
The Phillies have never faced Javier before, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out – assuming he does not tip his pitches like Lance McCullers Jr. in last night's game.
