After getting no-hit in Wednesday night's contest, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to win their last home game of the season before traveling back to Houston for the final one or two games.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Justin Verlander Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Taking the mound for the Houston Astros in Game 5 is future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. Despite a poor performance in Game 1, we should see a bounce-back performance by this year's likely AL Cy Young award winner in his last start of the season.
Through 28 starts this season, Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His metrics this year are also spectacular as he boasts a .255 xwOBA, .207 xBA and .331 xSLG.
On top of that, Verlander has been racking up strikeouts all season as he has posted a 27.8 K%. Recording at least six strikeouts in seven of his last 11 starts, the right-hander should be able to keep it rolling against Philadelphia.
In his one start against the Phillies in the regular season, Verlander was (almost literally) perfect as he threw five hitless innings while allowing one walk and striking out 10. Regression hit hard in his second appearance against Philadelphia in Game 1, although the pendulum should now swing back in the other direction and land somewhere between his October 4 performance and Game 1 performance.
Through 42 career plate appearances against Verlander, this current Phillies roster possesses a 35.7% K rate.
During the regular season, Philadelphia hovered right around the middle of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching at 22.3%. Looking at their projected lineup for Game 5, five of the Phillies’ nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
The Phillies are obviously not going to get no-hit again, and we should expect a strong outing from their lineup. However, they have guys who strike out frequently enough for Verlander to collect six strikeouts even if he has another poor start.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
We are also going to back a couple of Astros hitters as the Phillies are slated to go with a bullpen game. Over the final two months of the regular season, Philadelphia's relief pitching ranked 27th in the league in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 29th in BA, 24th in SLG and 27th in wOBA.
The Phillies have gone with a bullpen game twice this postseason and have allowed a total of nine runs. The first Houston hitter we are backing is superstar Yordan Alvarez, who has been an absolute phenom at the dish all year.
In the regular season, Alvarez posted a .304 BA, .612 SLG and a 1.017 OPS. Somehow, his metrics are even better as he boasts a .462 xwOBA, a .329 xBA and a .672 xSLG.
That excellent hitting continued into the playoffs as he has gone over this fantasy total in five of the 11 games he's played.
Noah Syndergaard will start this game for the Phillies. While Syndergaard has been solid this postseason, regression is likely. The right-hander produced a troubling .325 xwOBA, a .265 xBA and a .420 xSLG this season.
When facing right-handers this season, Alvarez’s numbers jump to a .299 BA, a .627 SLG and a 1.030 OPS.
Alex Bregman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
The other Houston hitter we are backing is Alex Bregman, who has gone over this total in five of his last seven games.
This strong stretch of hitting should continue against Philadelphia's leaky bullpen. However, Bregman will get to face Syndergaard first. In his career against the right-hander, Bregman is 1-for-2 with a single.
When facing right-handed pitching this year, Bregman boasts a .277 BA, a .504 SLG and a .881 OPS. His metrics are also outstanding as he has produced a .350 xwOBA, a .257 xBA and a .416 xSLG.
