The finale of the MLB postseason is upon us as the Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the World Series.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Justin Verlander Over 6 Strikeouts
Taking the mound for the Houston Astros in Game 1 is future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. Despite coming off Tommy John surgery at 39 years old, the right-hander was the best pitcher in the American League this season and is a heavy favorite to win the AL Cy Young award.
Through 28 starts this season, Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His metrics this year are also spectacular as he boasts a .255 xwOBA, .207 xBA and .331 xSLG.
On top of that, Verlander has been racking up strikeouts all season as he has posted a 27.8 K%. Recording at least six strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts, the right-hander should be able to keep It rolling against Philadelphia.
In his one start against the Phillies this year, Verlander was (almost literally) perfect as he threw five hitless innings while allowing one walk and striking out 10. Through 42 career plate appearances against Verlander, this current Phillies roster possesses a 35.7% K rate.
During the regular season, Philadelphia hovered right around the middle of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching at 22.3%. Looking at their projected lineup for Game 1, five of the Phillies' nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
Alex Bregman Under 0.5 Strikeouts
We are also going to back a couple of Astros hitters in this game as they are slated to go against right-hander Aaron Nola. These plays are not necessarily a fade of Nola, who has been brilliant on the mound once again this season.
That being said, he did get rocked his last time out as he surrendered six runs">earned runs on seven hits through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres in the NLCS. Either way, there are a couple of good angles to attack in this game, starting with Alex Bregman's strikeout prop.
One of the best hitters in all of baseball at avoiding strikeouts, Bregman boasts an impeccable 11.7% K rate. In fact, he has failed to strike out in 11 of his last 12 games when you include this postseason.
While Bregman is 0-for-2 in his career against Nola, neither of those at-bats resulted in a strikeout.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6
The other Houston hitter we are backing in this contest is Yordan Alvarez, who has been an absolute phenom at the dish all year. In the regular season, Alvarez posted a .304 BA, .612 SLG and 1.017 OPS.
Somehow, his metrics are even better as he boasts a .462 xwOBA, .329 xBA and .672 xSLG. This excellent hitting continued into the playoffs as he has gone over this fantasy total in three of the seven games he has played.
Through three career plate appearances against Nola, Alvarez is 1-for-3 with a single. While that would not be enough to get over this total, It is a good building block that would require just a run or RBI and a walk at the minimum throughout the game to push us over.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Alvarez's numbers jump to a .299 BA, .627 SLG, and 1.030 OPS.
