After Friday night's thrilling Game 1 comeback by the Philadelphia Phillies, we have Game 2 on Saturday night in Houston.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Taking the mound in Game 2 for Houston is left-hander Framber Valdez, who will look to have a better outing than Justin Verlander in Game 1. Through 30 starts in the regular season, Valdez was terrific as he went 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
His metrics this season are also spectacular as he boasts a .284 xwOBA, .227 xBA and .330 xSLG. Therefore, It is not surprising that Valdez has also dominated in this postseason.
Through his two playoff starts, the left-hander is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Recording at least six strikeouts in each of those two games, we should expect more of the same against the Phillies on Saturday.
In fact, he has recorded at least six strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts, including his 10-strikeout performance against the Phillies on October 5. Through 42 career plate appearances against Valdez, this current Philadelphia roster possesses a troubling 38.1% K rate.
Looking at their projected lineup for Game 1, five of the Phillies’ nine hitters possess a K% north of 21%.
Jeremy Pena Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
We are also going to fade a couple of Astros hitters as they are slated to go against right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has been sensational all year. Through 26 starts in the regular season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
His metrics this season are also outstanding as he boasts a .275 xwOBA, .226 xBA and .343 xSLG. Therefore, It is not surprising that Wheeler has also dominated in this postseason.
Through his four playoff starts, the right-hander is 1-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.51 WHIP. The first Houston hitter we are fading is rookie infielder Jeremy Pena.
While Pena has been a stud throughout the postseason, now is a good time to sell high considering who he is going against. Pena is due for some regression at the plate, as the larger sample size from the regular season suggests that this postseason-hitting surge is not sustainable.
This year, Pena produced a mere .300 xwOBA, .248 xBA, and .397 xSLG. These metrics back up the regression claim, especially considering that Pena's splits have made around a 25% jump in the postseason.
Additionally, Pena's splits in the regular season took a dip when facing right-handed pitching as he posted a .241 BA, .402 SLG, and .675 OPS.
Jose Altuve Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5.5
The other Houston hitter we are fading is Jose Altuve, who looks lost at the plate this postseason. Through eight postseason games, Altuve has posted a troubling .108 BA, .135 SLG and .310 OPS.
Going under this total in six of his eight playoff games, we should expect another tough outing against the dominant Wheeler. Having never faced Wheeler in his career, it may take Altuve a few trips through the batting order to figure out how he throws.
Like Pena, Altuve's splits dropped when facing right-handed pitching during the regular season as he produced a .285/.487/.860 slash line. While those numbers are still very strong, they are not nearly as good as his splits against left-handed pitching.
In a non-favorable matchup against an excellent pitcher amidst a slump at the plate, I would be shocked if this is the game where Altuve turns it around.
