For the first time since 1981, we have a Yankees–Dodgers World Series. A battle of East Coast vs. West Coast, with the first and fourth top preseason favorites meeting in the Fall Classic.
Let's look at the matchup and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know before Game 1 of the 2024 World Series.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, at 8 p.m. ET.
Yankees-Dodgers: World Series Betting Trends, Stats
Everything You Need to Know About the Fall Classic
The Favorite
Let's start at the top.
The Dodgers entered the season as favorites to win it all at +350. The Yankees were fourth at +900.
L.A. is the 11th preseason favorite to make the World Series in the last 40 years. Of the previous 10, seven won it all, with three losing. The three losses: 2003 Yankees, 2001 Yankees, and 1996 Braves — all three series involved the Yankees one way or the other.
Of those 11 teams, only one was an underdog on the series price in the World Series itself — the 1990 A's, who won it all.
A Chalk Final
With the Dodgers first in preseason odds and the Yankees fourth — this is the sixth World Series in the last 40 years to feature two teams who were both top four in preseason odds.
2024: Dodgers-Yankees
2020: Dodgers–Rays
2009: Yankees–Phillies
2000: Yankees–Mets
1999: Yankees-Braves
1996: Yankees-Braves
All six series involved either the Dodgers or the Yankees. The team with the lower (better) preseason odds won four of the five series, with just the 1996 Braves losing to the Yankees.
The 2024 Dodgers-Yankees World Series has combined preseason odds of just +1250, tied for the fourth-lowest mark.
1999: Yankees-Braves, +550 combined
1996: Yankees-Braves, +1050 combined
2001: Yankees-D-Backs, +1200 combined
2024: Yankees-Dodgers, +1250 combined
2000: Yankees-Mets, 1250 combined
Again, all five series include the Yankees.
Yankee 'Dogs
Let's talk about the series price now. The Dodgers (-125) are slight favorites over the Yankees (+105).
Favorites in the World Series are just 22-16 since 1985.
For the Yankees, this will be their first World Series as underdogs since 1996 (vs. Braves) — a series New York won.
Don't be scared off by the Yankees as 'dogs game-to-game, either. They were 18-9 on the moneyline as underdogs this season — that's the fourth-most profitable mark on the moneyline of any MLB team.
The Ultimate Title
The Dodgers entered the season as the favorites to win it all.
The Dodgers entered the playoffs as the favorites to win it all.
Now, the Dodgers enter the World Series as favorites to win it all.
In 2024, L.A. will be the eighth team in that spot over the last 40 years. Those teams are 5-2 in the World Series.
The wins came from the 2016 Cubs, 2009 Yankees, 1999 Yankees, 1995 Braves and 1986 Mets.
The losses were the 2003 Yankees and 1996 Braves.
Playoff Chaos
As I mentioned above, the Dodgers were the favorites entering the playoffs. The Yankees were tied for the second-best odds entering the postseason.
The last World Series with two teams ranked first and second in odds entering the playoffs? The 2004 World Series between the Red Sox and Cardinals.
Of the seven series to have the 1-2 pre-playoff teams, the favorite is 6-1.
The only loss? The 1990 Reds.
Welcome to the Sho
Shohei Ohtani is the favorite to win World Series MVP at +220.
Dating back to 2002, only one other player has closed below +400 to win World Series MVP entering the Fall Classic — Barry Bonds in 2002 with the Giants.
In that span, only five other players have closed below +500 to win MVP, and only one won the award — Corey Seager at +475 last year.
In the four other years, a player at +800 odds or longer won World Series MVP.
No In-between
Of the 22 players to win World Series MVP since 2002, seven closed at under 10-1 odds, while 10 closed at 15-1 or longer. The average price for a World Series winner is +1733.
In that span, we've seen five favorites go on to win the award.
2023: Corey Seager
2014: Madison Bumgarner
2013: David Ortiz
2008: Cole Hamels
2004: Manny Ramirez
Under the Total
It isn't every year that one of the two World Series participants actually went under their win total during the regular season.
In 2024, the Yankees went over 91.5 with 94 wins, and the Dodgers went under 103.5, winning 98 games. The Dodgers broke a five-year streak of cashing their win total over, the longest over streak in MLB.
Here are the 10 teams that have gone under since 1990.
2024: Dodgers
2021: Braves
2018: Dodgers
2012:Tigers
2006: Cardinals
2000: Yankees
1999: Yankees
1997: Indians
1996: Braves
1995: Braves
Those teams are 5-4 in terms of winning it all, and in 2024, L.A. is just the third team to have a win total of 100+ and go under, with the 1999 Yankees (won) and 1996 Braves (lost).
Those are the only three teams to make the World Series with a preseason win total of 100+ since 1990.
Do Wins Matter?
The Dodgers had a win total of 103.5. The Yankees were at 91.5 for a difference of +12.
Eight other World Series matchups have had a +10 win total difference in the last 40 years. Those teams went 6-2; the two losses were the 2003 Yankees and 1996 Braves.
Nineteen teams have had a win total difference of more than five wins, those teams are 14-5 in the World Series.
Ignore the actual wins. Teams with more regular season wins in that span are just 18-19 winning outright in the Fall Classic.
No Field Advantage
Over the last 20 years, there have been 101 World Series games played with a home and road team — non-neutral site games.
Home teams are just 51-50, with a $100 bettor down $975 and road teams up $609.
In the first two games of the World Series, home teams are 23-13 on the moneyline. They are 28-37 in Games 3-7 of the series.
During the 2024 postseason, home teams are 19-19 on the moneyline, including just 34-45 over the last two years in the playoffs.
Early Overs
In Game 1 of the World Series, the over is 14-6 over the last 20 seasons.
In Games 2-7, the over is just 39-47-5 in that same span.
Power Overs
During the 2024 season, Yankee Stadium overs were 52-39-5 for a $962 profit. Dodger Stadium overs were 53-42-4 for a $830 profit. They were the third- and fifth-most profitable home teams to the over this year.
As a duo, this is the first over season for Yankee and Dodger Stadiums combined since 2017.
Late Losses Hurt
Over the last three years in the playoffs, teams to lose any of Game 3, 4, 5, or 6 are just 10-23 on the moneyline in their next game.
The playoff zig-zag most definitely works the opposite way later in MLB series.
Yamamoto at Home
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has made 12 home starts at Dodger Stadium this season — the over is 10-2 in those games, with a $100 bettor up $730 and the total going over by three runs per game.
That $730 mark is the third-best mark of 343 pitchers this year.
LA Confidential
In early inning situations, here are two Dodger pitching trends to be aware of.
In Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 20 overall starts, he is 15-4-1 on the first five-inning (F5) moneyline.
Walker Buehler, on the other hand, is 5-12-1 on the F5 moneyline in his starts this year, including 2-7-1 since the All-Star break.
Doubting Cole
For the first time during the 2024 season, Gerrit Cole will be listed as an underdog in Game 1.
As a member of the Yankees, he is just 3-3 on the moneyline as an underdog and he is 17-23 on the moneyline as a 'dog in his career.
Cole has made five starts on the road in Dodger Stadium — L.A. has put up at least three runs in each of them.
Expect Chaos?
Between 2010 and 2020, teams with a 3+ run lead at home in the World Series were 19-1 on the moneyline. Since 2021, they are just 4-2.
Overall, though, teams are 27-2 on the moneyline when leading by 3+ in the 2024 playoffs, tied for the fewest losses since 2012.
The Dodgers have eight total losses at home this year in which they led by two runs or more. It's the most they have had in a season in over 15 years.
Starters Matter
In the last 20 years, starting pitchers who toss six full innings or more in the World Series see their teams go 62-35 (64%) on the moneyline.
When they toss fewer than six full innings, those teams are 49-76 (39%) on the moneyline.
