Yankees vs Braves Odds | Sunday Finale Prediction (6/23)
(Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) Pictured: Max Fried.
Yankees vs Braves Odds | Sunday Finale Prediction (6/23)
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -115 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -105 |
The Yankees stopped their mini skid with an 8-3 win over Braves on Saturday night and now the rubber match Sunday will decide the series.
Despite the recent stretch, New York still enters Sunday with the best record in baseball at 52-27. Many people figured Atlanta would be in that position, but injuries and underperformance have them fighting for the Wild Card instead of the best record in baseball.
Atlanta opened a short favorite at Yankees Stadium on Sunday, but Yankees vs Braves odds now have New York as a -115 moneyline favorite with an over/under of 8.5 (-118o / -102u). Check out my Yankees vs Braves prediction for the series finale below.
Through 16 starts this season, Nasty Nestor has been more like Not Consistent Nestor. Nestor Cortes Jr. has a 3.36 ERA but has mostly been brilliant or blown up this year. He has allowed at least four runs in five starts but has also held opponents scoreless in five outings.
Despite his up-and-down nature, Cortes has a 3.19 xERA, the best mark of his career. However, his hard-hit rate is also at a career high and he has a declining strikeout rate. His entire profile has been very confusing this season.
Cortes has still had success with his cutter for most of this season, but his fastball has not been as effective as previous years. He has really honed in his command though, allowing the fewest BB/9 of his career.
New York’s offense has been carried by the superstars as the top of their lineup. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rank first and third, respectively, in baseball in OPS and have led the Yankees to a top-three offense in wOBA, wRC+, runs scored and home runs.
After an injury-plagued 2023 season, Max Fried is fully back to the form that made him the Cy Young runner-up in 2022. Through 14 starts this season, he has amassed a 6-3 record and a 3.11 ERA.
Fried has used seven different pitches this season but for the most part primarily relies on his fastball, curveball and sinker. He has average strikeout stuff but his real M.O. is generating soft ground balls, which he does at an elite rate.
This season has seen Fried generate a ground-ball rate of over 60%, the best mark of his career and the highest rate in the league. His curveball continues to be terrific, and even with his strikeout rate and walk rate going in the wrong direction, he will be fine as long as he continues to keep the ball on the ground.
Atlanta’s season took a massive hit when it lost MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season with a knee injury. The Braves are also without center fielder Michael Harris. Over the last month, this offense has been league average, sitting 16th in wOBA and 18th in wRC+.
Yankees vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
For the casual baseball fan, when you hear Yankees vs. Braves, you think superstar bats and high-powered offenses. I think that is creating an inflated number on the total here.
Let’s start with the Braves. Marcell Ozuna is obliterating the ball this season. But outside of Ozuna, Matt Olson is the only player with a wRC+ above 110 and he has still be pretty disappointing this season. Acuña and Harris are both hurt, and Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies have all taken a big step back from last season.
The Braves have a ton of talent on paper, but on the field, this has been nothing more than a league-average offense all season.
When you look at the Yankees, Judge is the best hitter on the planet and Soto has been terrific, but who else do you fear in this lineup? Over the last two weeks, this offense has been on a skid, falling to 14th in wRC+.
If you’re going to fade the Yankees offense, you want to do it against a left-handed pitcher. New York has been the best team in baseball against right-handed pitchers but ranks just 16th in wOBA against southpaws.
Fried has established himself as a Cy Young contender again and his elite ability to keep the ball on the ground and generate soft contact will limit a Yankees team that is always dangerous to take one deep.
While Cortes has been inconsistent this season, he has been brilliant at home. He has a 1.57 ERA in eight starts at Yankee Stadium and has held opponents scoreless in five outings in the Bronx.
Pick: Under 8.5
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