One of the biggest World Series ever is on the horizon as the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to begin the 2024 Fall Classic with Game 1 on Friday night at Dodger Stadium.
Big markets, big stars, big personalities — the Yankees and Dodgers bring it all to the table in this year's iteration of the World Series.
The World Series MVP market is the subject of our focus for this piece, as the odds board is littered with perennial MVP candidates and All-Stars — some likely future Hall of Famers. We're talking Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton.
But often times, the player who wins series MVP isn't necessarily a superstar. Look no further than Tommy Edman catching fire to capture NLCS MVP honors. With that in mind, here are five long-shot World Series MVP picks and their odds for Yankees vs Dodgers.
Yankees vs Dodgers World Series MVP Picks
Gleyber Torres World Series MVP (+4000; Caesars)
Additional pick: Torres to Lead Series in Hits (+1700; FanDuel)
Hitting out of the leadoff spot for the away team, Torres projects to lead the World Series in plate appearances.
He has nine runs this postseason, four more than any other Yankees hitter, and he's tied for the team lead in hits (11).
Given increased opportunities relative to the field, I like Torres to lead the series in hits (+1700 FanDuel), listed between 8th and 10th on the odds board, depending upon the book. If there were a market for most runs in the series, I'd bet Torres at +750 or higher.
I'll also take a small stab at Torres to win World Series MVP (+4000). He has carried a hot September (.333 average, .859 OPS) into October (.297 average., .832 OPS) and has served as the Yankees' offensive catalyst in the playoffs.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. World Series MVP (+5000; FanDuel)
Additional Picks: Chisholm Most RBIs (+1500; FanDuel); Steals Leader (+500; DraftKings)
After playing most of the playoffs in sub-55-degree temperatures, perhaps Chisholm, a native of the Bahamas who has spent most of his career in Miami, will warm up to the weather in Los Angeles.
Despite his postseason struggles (.147 average, .481 OPS), Chisholm moved up to fourth and fifth in the Yankees' batting order in the final three games of the ALCS — after hitting sixth earlier in the postseason — and could remain in a prime RBI spot for the World Series with the Dodgers only using right-handed starting pitchers.
Chisholm already has nine postseason plate appearances with runners in scoring position (tied with Torres and Alex Verdugo) behind Giancarlo Stanton (12) and Austin Wells (10), who has also struggled in the playoffs and was moved down the order in favor of Chisholm.
With an improved lineup spot, Chisholm is an exciting long-shot selection for RBI Leader (+1500 at FanDuel) and worth considering for steals leader (+500 at DraftKings) and series MVP.
— Sean Zerillo
Teoscar Hernandez World Series MVP (+2800; DraftKings)
Addtional pick: Hernandez Most RBIs (+1000; FanDuel)
Even if Freddie Freeman — hampered by an ankle injury — plays each game in the World Series, Teoscar Hernandez should bat fifth (behind Max Muncy) against righties and third in two potential matchups against Carlos Rodon, with the potential to move up to third or fourth against the Yankees' right-handed starters if Freeman sits any games.
Hernandez ranks fourth on the Dodgers with eight postseason RBI but leads the Dodgers in postseason plate appearances with runners in scoring position (18), ahead of Tommy Edman (15) and Mookie Betts (13).
Edman caught fire in the NLCS but also hit cleanup against the Mets' trio of lefty starters; he'll bat lower in the order against the Yankees.
Bet Hernandez to lead the series in RBI (+1000), and consider his odds of winning series MVP.
— Sean Zerillo
Gerrit Cole World Series MVP (+3300; FanDuel)
I've mostly been down on Cole this season considering he's posted his worst underlying metrics (3.69 xERA, 17.9% K-B%%) since his final season in Pittsburgh (2017).
Still, Cole should have two head-to-head matchups with Jack Flaherty, whose velocity declined by two ticks (91.4 mph fastball) in Game 5 of the NLCS compared to his season-long average.
Flaherty averaged 93.5 mph on his fastball and 84.8 mph on his slider through August, but his velocity dipped to a season-low (91.8 mph and 83.8 mph) in his final two regular-season starts in September.
The velocity bounced back after 10 days of rest before the NLDS (93.8 mph and 84.7 mph) but dipped the second time through the order in Game 1 of the NLCS (five days of rest) — Flaherty only recorded two strikeouts (5.5%) against five walks (13.9%) in his final four turns through the Mets' lineup (36 batters).
With additional rest after the NLCS, Flaherty's arm might be in better shape the first time through the Yankees' order in Game 1.
Still, I'd expect diminishing velocity from Flaherty the longer he goes in this series. And if Cole can win both of his starts in a potential 4-1 or 4-2 series win for the Yankees, he'll have a chance at MVP honors.
— Sean Zerillo
Carlos Rodon World Series MVP (+11000; FanDuel)
Few would have expected it entering the postseason, but the best starting pitcher remaining in the playoffs is Yankees Game 2 starter Carlos Rodon.
The left-hander didn’t have the cleanest first start, allowing four runs to the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS over 3 2/3 innings, but he did light it up before running into trouble with seven strikeouts.
Since then, he’s allowed three earned runs on just eight hits and a walk over 10 2/3 innings, twice shutting down a Guardians offense that raked against lefties this season and got even stronger in that split with the addition of Lane Thomas.
Rodon’s now pitched to a menacing 37.3% strikeout rate in the playoffs, walking just one batter, and he seems capable of shoving against a Dodgers team that’s relied heavily on walks this postseason and has struck out at a higher clip against left-handers, even if they’ve hit them harder.
The Yankees’ pitching staff should be what gets them across the finish line if they’re to win the World Series, and with the way Rodon is running, there’s a high likelihood he shines the brightest.
Nobody’s come remotely close to flashing the strikeout prowess of Rodon in this postseason, and as it stands right now, Gerrit Cole would seem to be a big liability in the rotation for New York. Those numbers should jump off the page for MVP voters, and you’d also have to say that this is the lone pitcher who will have a chance to make an impression on this series.
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting quick hooks and receiving some good batted-ball luck in one of his two positive playoff starts this October, I don’t see him winning a game all by his lonesome. Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty can’t be trusted, nor can Clarke Schmidt.
Rodon closed the season with a brilliant 30.1% strikeout rate and .226 Expected Batting Average (xBA) in September, and he has pitched to an excellent .237 xBA and .374 Expected Slugging (xSLG) this postseason.
Remaining strong against a team that loves to hit lefties and doesn’t strike out, he’s ready for this challenge – and I see him earning every bit of two wins in this series.
There are some good bats that warrant MVP consideration, but if you’re looking for a long shot or a pitcher of any kind, you simply have to land here.
