Yankees vs Giants Odds & Predictions: Logan Webb Prop Pick
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb.
Yankees vs Giants Odds & Predictions
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-108 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +164 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-112 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -198 |
Aaron Judge was the story in Friday's series opener, as he capped off a historic month of May with two home runs in his Oracle Park debut. The Yankees also grabbed their 40th win of the season, which paces the American League.
New York is a slight betting underdog in Saturday's matchup, however, as it will send Cody Poteet (1.50 ERA, 6 IP) to the mound to take on Logan Webb (2.74 ERA, 72 1/3 IP) and the Giants.
Yankees vs Giants odds for Saturday night have the Giants as -112 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5 (+100o /-120u). My Yankees vs Giants prediction targets a player prop, as I see value on the over/under for Logan Webb strikeouts.
New York Yankees
The Yankees capped off a tremendous month with a dominant 6-2 win in Friday's series opener. Thanks to another strong showing from Marcus Stroman and the bullpen, the Yankees' team ERA moved down to 2.75, which ranks first in MLB.
New York's lineup was once again quite hard on a high quality right-handed starter, as it got to Jordan Hicks for four earned runs inside the first 5 1/3 innings.
Over the last 30 days, the Yankees own a league-leading wRC+ of 133 versus right-handed pitching, with a .813 OPS. They rank first over the entirety of the season against righties with a 129 wRC+. Their .347 wOBA also ranks first, as does their 0.49 BB/K ratio.
A more disciplined approach based on making better contact continues to have the Yankees offense finding drastically better results than we saw last season. They own the second-lowest chase rate in the league at 25.3%, and the sixth-best whiff rate at 22.9%.
Poteet will return to big-league action for the first time since April 13, when he threw six innings of one-run ball versus Cleveland. He was dealing with a blister issue, but he threw four innings on May 19 and should be ready to handle a standard workload.
Poteet pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 82 and a Location+ 112 in his lone MLB outing against Cleveland.
San Francisco Giants
Webb pitched to excellent results in May, capped off by an excellent start Sunday at Citi Field in which he threw seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. He finished May with an ERA of 2.40 and WHIP of 1.20 in 30 innings.
Surface stats, however, don't tell the whole story. In those five May outings, Webb was hit hard 64% of the time and allowed an xBA of .287.
Webb's ground-ball style of pitching has often been underrated by most expected results, but he does appear to be a lesser pitcher this season. His whiff rate is down to just 19.3% and his K:BB ratio is way down from last season at 3.21.
Yankees vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
Webb should provide San Francisco somewhat of a starting pitching edge over Poteet, but that's not enough for me to see value with the Giants considering the Yankees' absurd splits versus right-handed pitching. The Yankees bullpen continues to pitch to fantastic results as well.
The current prices on this game look fair, but I believe there is some value fading one of the most popular props from today's slate: Webb's strikeouts over/under.
Webb has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in five straight outings, which makes a total of 4.5 look quite low on first glance. However, Webb ran with some highly favorable luck on batted balls in those outings, and none of them came against teams that have Yankees-level plate discipline.
At +124, we have the right number to fade Webb in an extremely tough matchup.
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