The New York Yankees took full advantage of having home field advantage in this series, as they won the first two games of the ALCS, outscoring the Cleveland Guardians 11-5 in the process. Game 3 shifts the stage back to Cleveland and Clarke Schmidt will get the start for the Yankees today. However, that may not lead to a bunch of strikeouts for him, particularly when Steven Kwan and Brayan Rocchio step to the plate.
The Yankees are listed at -120 moneyline favorites, and the total is set at over/under 7.5 runs. Opening pitch is set for 5:08 p.m. ET on TBS. Continue below for my Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 player props and my MLB picks for Thursday, October 17.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 Player Props
- Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135, DraftKings)
- Steven Kwan / Brayan Rocchio One Hit Parlay (+169, ESPN Bet)
Clarke Schmidt Player Props: Sell High on NY's Starter
Clarke Schmidt enjoyed the best season of his career in 2024, pitching to a 2.85 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 85 1/3 innings. He struck out five batters or more in 14 of his 16 (88%) regular season starts. In his first postseason start against the Royals, Schmidt pitched four scoreless innings before Kansas City got to him for two runs in the fifth. Schmidt was pulled after 4 2/3 innings and finished with four strikeouts.
The Royals are a team that hits the ball like their AL Central rival Guardians. Cleveland ranked 27th in strikeout rate in the regular season and six of their nine projected starters have a below-league average strikeout rate. Manager Stephen Vogt may also have eight left-handed or switch-hitters in his lineup today and Schmidt has been more hittable against left-handers over the last two years.
Despite this, Schmidt struck out seven in five innings in his lone regular season start against Cleveland. However, he has struck out five in just one of his last five appearances against the Guardians, three of which were starts. Additionally, Schmidt is not a starter that typically gets a long leash. He has pitched past the fifth inning in eight of 17 starts this season.
Now, he pitches in a playoff setting with the Yankees having a fresh bullpen. Against a team that does not strikeout often to begin with, Schmidt will likely need to go five innings or more to clear this number.
Guardians Player Props: Steven Kwan / Brayan Rocchio One Hit Parlay
One hitter that will be excited to see Schmidt is the first hitter that he will face today, Steven Kwan. The Guardians' left fielder is 4-for-8 lifetime against Schmidt. This postseason, Kwan is hitting .448 and has three games with three hits. Dating back to the 2022, Kwan has a 12-game playoff hitting streak, and seven of those games have been against the Yankees.
If not for two hitless AL Wild Card games against Tampa in 2022, Kwan would own the franchise record for the longest hitting to begin a postseason career. Instead, that record belongs to teammate Brayan Rocchio, who has hit safely in each of the Guardians' seven postseason games.
Rocchio hit just .206 in the regular season, but he has stepped up his game in the postseason. Rocchio is 10-for-23 (.457) in the postseason and he has recorded two hits in each of his last three games. To illustrate how impressive he has been, three of those hits came against Tarik Skubal and Gerrit Cole, likely the last two AL Cy Young award winners.
Kwan and Rocchio have the longest hitting streaks going in the postseason and by combining them, we get an excellent price at +169 on ESPN Bet. Kwan will almost certainly have four plate appearances to get a hit, and Rocchio will get at least three with a chance for a fourth depending on how the game flows.
