With yesterday's dramatic victory, the Cleveland Guardians showed that the New York Yankees were in for a fight in this American League Championship Series. With the momentum seeming to shift, can they even up the series?
Let's take a look at my top two Yankees vs. Guardians Game 4 player props and my MLB picks for Friday, October 18.
Yankees vs. Guardians Game 4 Player Props
- Luis Gil Under 4.5 Strikeouts ( -145, bet365)
- Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+115, DraftKings)
Luis Gil Player Props: Short Leash for NY's Starter?
Luis Gil will get the ball for the Yankees in this matchup, and this is the point of the postseason where teams need their pitching depth to step up. However, it's hard to see Gil being given much leash in this outing.
We have not seen Gil since his last regular season start on September 28. In that outing, and many prior starts, Gil struggled mightily with his command.
Now, Aaron Boone is going to trust a 26-year-old with command issues to make his first start on the road, having not pitched in nearly three whole weeks. Gil is being set up for failure here against a formidable Guardians lineup.
Cleveland had the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in baseball this season. Plus, they've already seen Gil and were very disciplined during that matchup.
Gil lasted just three innings while walking six batters and striking out three. He will likely have a much shorter leash, especially if he's rusty after the long layoff.
Gil striking out five Guardians in this start would be quite a surprise.
Gleyber Torres Player Props: Expect This Scoring Trend to Continue
Gleyber Torres has had a solid postseason as the Yankees' leadoff hitter. He comes into this matchup hitting .259 with a .400 OBP and has scored seven runs in seven games.
I expect that run-scoring trend to continue tonight, as Torres should be right in the middle of the Yankees' run production. He also draws an excellent opportunity to start off New York in the first against Gavin Williams.
Williams has reverse splits, meaning he struggles more with righties than lefties. Williams' splits are drastic, as his hard-hit rate is nearly 8% higher, and his BAA is 29 points higher.
This all points to Torres getting a knock and on base for the sluggers behind him, who are also heating up.
While we could see Torres score early in this one, he is somewhat matchup-proof, so we can't doubt him against the Guardians' bullpen either.
