On Monday Night, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians begin the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The Guardians pulled out a gutsy win on Saturday in Game 5 of the ALDS, thanks to Lane Thomas's late grand slam against inevitable Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have had the last couple of days off after taking care of business in their division series against the Royals in four games. It'll be Carlos Rodon on the mound for the Yanks and Alex Cobb for the Guardians tonight.
I was able to craft a three-leg Yankees vs Guardians parlay that pays out nearly 9-1 on your original investment.
Yankees vs Guardians Parlay for ALCS Game 1
- Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts -156
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases +120
- Game Total Under 7.5 -120
Parlay Odds: +891 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Guardians Parlay Leg 1
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts -156
Rodon failed to get out of the fourth inning against the Royals in Game 2, suffering the loss as he allowed four earned runs. Rodon managed to rack up seven strikeouts on the evening but now faces a much more difficult assignment in the punchout department.
The Guardians were bottom in strikeouts per game on offense during the regular season, as they've done an excellent job consistently putting the ball in play. But Rodon can strike out opponents with regularity, and his body of work in 2024 suggests he is still an excellent top-of-the-rotation option.
But Rodon struggled with his command in the fourth inning in his last start, so tonight, he will focus on pitching deep into the game instead of racking up strikeouts. Against a contact-friendly Guardians team, I do not expect many deep counts.
The Guardians were 23rd in the league in walks per game, so they love to be aggressive early in the count. The way the market is reacting towards this prop makes me feel Rodon should sail under six strikeouts tonight.
Yankees vs Guardians Parlay Leg 2
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases +120
Juan Soto draws an incredible matchup tonight against Alex Cobb, who only threw 17 innings during the regular season due to recovering from an injury.
In his career, Soto is 7-for-11 with 2 HRs and a double against Cobb. It is not the largest sample size, but it is clear that Soto sees the ball extremely well out of Cobb's hands.
In his 17 IP during the regular season, Cobb featured a three-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, knuckle-curve and splitter. Soto had ridiculous numbers against the sinker, sporting a .377 expected batting average and .774 expected slugging.
It's wild to think Soto was unlucky during the regular season, as many metrics suggest he should have been at least a .320 hitter. It was a terrific season, and I expect him to start the championship series with a bang.
Yankees vs Guardians Parlay Leg 3
Game Total Under 7.5 -120
Despite the fact that we are fading Rodon's strikeout under and taking the over on Soto's total base prop, I think tonight's game will be a low-scoring affair. First and foremost, I think Cleveland's offense was extremely overrated throughout the regular season.
The Guardians finally started to cool off in July and August, but it was clear that they were bound to return to earth eventually. Jose Ramirez is a legitimate future Hall of Famer, but the rest of the lineup needs to be more consistent.
The Guardians batted .231 as a team on the road, and tonight they may feel some of the altering effects after a tough series against the Tigers. They have only hit .210 against Rodon in the past, to boot.
However, the Guardians had a top-3 bullpen throughout the regular season, as it is their team's strength. They have the best closer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase, so if Cobb exits the game early, it makes life more difficult for the opposition.
As for the Yankees' bullpen, they were a top-6 group during the regular season have been absolute nails in the postseason. They have yet to allow a run, and Rodon should bridge the gap to the back end of the pen tonight.
