The New York Yankees have increased their AL East lead to five games and are closing in on yet another division title. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners are looking forward to the offseason after a disappointing 2024 season.
Today, the Yankees look to complete the sweep and will send Clarke Schmidt to the rubber. Logan Gilbert will oppose him, so it should be a terrific pitching matchup.
Oddsmakers make both teams roughly -108 on the moneyline, and the over/under is set at 7. I built Yankees vs. Mariners parlay for this game, which consists of three legs and pays roughly 9-1.
John Feltman's Yankees vs Mariners MLB Parlay Picks for Thursday
- Logan Gilbert Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Clarke Schmidt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
- Seattle Mariners Run Line -0.5 F5 Innings (+106)
Parlay Odds: +871 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Logan Gilbert Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Yankees vs. Mariners, 4:10 p.m. ET
Gilbert is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, solely because he pitches in Seattle. Gilbert has had a terrific 2024 season and enters today's start with a 3.11 xERA.
His velocity, chase, whiff and strikeout rate are all elite (above the 80th percentile), but he draws a tough matchup with the Yankees. In 76 at-bats against Gilbert, the Yankees are batting .276, but more importantly, they only have a 20.5% K-rate.
There is a lot of familiarity, which gives me cause for concern, especially since the Yankees offense is red-hot right now. The Yankees are also bottom 10 in strikeout rate, which is typically an area in which they've struggled over the past several years.
The public perception is that the Yankees still strike out a bunch, but there is a reason why Gilbert's under on this prop is juiced. I will follow the steam here and trust that Gilbert doesn't accumulate over seven strikeouts.
Clarke Schmidt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Yankees vs. Mariners, 4:10 p.m. ET
Schmidt gets a tremendous matchup against the Mariners' offense, which is the worst in baseball in terms of strikeouts.
Schmidt's metrics are mixed, but he ranks above the 75th percentile in both strikeout and whiff rate. He only struck out five in his last start, but I think this is a terrific buy-low opportunity.
Schmidt is averaging over nine strikeouts per nine innings this season and is finally starting to get stretched out a bit.
Some may be worried about Schmidt getting pulled early, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go over this total in five innings. Considering the odds we are getting in such a tasty matchup, this leg is a no-brainer for me.
Seattle Mariners Run Line -0.5 F5 Innings (+106)
Yankees vs. Mariners, 4:10 p.m. ET
After degrading the Mariners' offense, I will take a shot backing them in the first five innings. Despite Schmidt's excellent strikeout rate, his middling walk and low ground-ball rates have me concerned.
I'm also accounting for the Yankees' offense to struggle against Gilbert. Even though we are fading his strikeout total, I think Gilbert is an elite enough pitcher to shut down any offense in baseball.
I don't trust the Mariners to pull the game out late, but they may jump out to an early lead with Gilbert on the mound. They are going to strike out a ton, but there are a lot of boom-or-bust hitters in this lineup.
I have a strange feeling it will be 2-1 or 1-0 through five, and that'll be a result of Gilbert cooling down the Yankees' offense.
