Yankees vs. Mets Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 8 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -164 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -148 | 8 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +136 |
The Yankees will take the short ride over to Queens on Tuesday to take on the Mets in the first meeting of the 2023 Subway Series.
Neither team is where they want to be in the standings. The Yankees are nine games over .500 but sit in third in the AL East; the Mets are four games below .500 and fourth in the NL East.
New York baseball fans are starting to get restless as they continue to watch their teams underperform as we reach the midway point of June.
Continue reading to see where I think the betting value lies in Tuesday's Subway Series opener between the Yankees and Mets at Citi Field.
New York Yankees
Luis Severino has struggled with injuries for the better part of the past five seasons. Since the beginning of 2019, the once-promising right-hander has started just 26 games. He started this season on the injured list and has made just four starts.
In his last two starts, Severino has allowed 11 runs over nine innings. This after two solid outings in May in which he allowed just two earned runs over 11 1/3 frames. His ERA sits at 5.75 and his xERA is even more concerning at 6.22.
Severino has managed to not lose any velocity, but his strikeout rate has tanked from 36.4% (2021) to 20.2% (2023). He has allowed a ridiculous 14.3% barrel rate, allowing seven home runs over 20 1/3 innings.
Simply put, the Yankees go as Aaron Judge goes. In seven games without the reigning AL MVP, New York has scored just 21 runs. Sans Judge, the Yanks rank 28th in wOBA and wRC+.
You know the offense is struggling when Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Willie Calhoun have been your best hitters for the past week. Promising rookie Anthony Volpe has really struggled. He has the lowest on-base percentage of any qualified player in the league.
New York Mets
Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer has been up and down in his second season with the Mets. He has a solid 3.71 ERA and 3.21 xERA, although it is a step back from his typical dominance.
The biggest issue for Scherzer has been a couple blow-up outings. In 10 starts, he has allowed at least five runs in three of them. At 38 years old, we could be starting to see age catch up to Scherzer. His velocity has dropped and his strikeout rate is down significantly from his 32.7% career average (just 26.6% this season).
Scherzer's control is still above average, but he has taken a step back. Not only is his walk rate up, but when he has missed his spot, it has resulted in the highest barrel rate of his career.
The Mets offense, which has been below average as a whole, was dealt a big blow when Pete Alonso landed on the injured list. Rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez has been their next-best hitter, but they really need Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte to step up.
Yankees vs. Mets Betting Pick
This is a difficult matchup to handicap.
You have two starting pitchers who are no longer at the peak of their powers — both with concerning metrics and declining strikeout rates. And you also have two offenses that don’t inspire a ton of confidence right now.
These teams rank 22nd and 27th in wOBA over the last two weeks. They are also both in their worst offensive split. On the season, they rank 17th and 18th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Oh, and both teams will be without their best hitter in Judge and Alonso. The loss of those sluggers puts a massive hole in the middle of each lineup.
While both pitchers have been inconsistent, they have each shown the ability to be great when their stuff is working. Following a day off on Monday, each team will have rested bullpens behind their starter.
This total opened at seven and got bet all the way up to eight. I think that’s too high and will buy the overcorrection.
Pick: Under 8 (Play to -125) OR Under 7.5 (+100) |
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