The Yankees and Mets will renew their storied rivalry this week in New York, and to get things started, we have a tantalizing matchup from a parlay perspective between Gerrit Cole and David Peterson.
Both starters should offer us some fantastic value in their respective props. Since I anticipate Peterson to struggle mightily given his track record, that should open the door for a highly attractive price on a reasonable four-leg same game parlay.
Here's my Yankees vs Mets MLB parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Mets MLB Parlay: Tuesday Picks
- Yankees ML (-142)
- David Peterson Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+125)
- Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
- Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (-115)
Parlay Odds: +625 (DraftKings)
Yankees ML (-142)
I'll take this price on the reigning Cy Young Award winner versus perhaps my least favorite pitcher of all-time any day of the week.
Cole has done nothing to lose the respect he garnered from oddsmakers a season ago, breezing through his rehab assignment with eye-popping strikeout numbers and returning from injury to positive results against the Orioles last week.
He allowed just three hits and a walk over four innings with five strikeouts, and one of the two runs charged to his line was let in by reliever Ron Marinaccio, who was sent back to Triple-A soon after the outing.
The strikeouts are still very much there — as we'll get into later — and even with the Mets entering this one on a hot streak at the plate, I think they'll meet their maker against one of the toughest pitchers they've had to face in the last few weeks.
Factor in, too, that strikeouts have been an issue of late, and I'm not seeing the type of offensive explosion needed to overcome Peterson on the other side of the coin.
The Yankees may not have quite the same aura against left-handers this year, but Peterson is a machine when it comes to allowing baserunners.
He's historically struggled in limiting walks — something that won't work here given the Yankees' expert discipline at the dish — and his poor expected batting average has only gotten worse this year in his short four-start sample.
I'll provide more evidence below as to why this is a crooked matchup, but for now, let's lock in the Yankees to win.
David Peterson Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+125)
This is where it gets fun. DraftKings will allow us to play a wider array of props on the two pitchers, and there may not be a better bet on the entire slate than Peterson to surrender six hits.
Let's start with the fact that Peterson has allowed 17 hits in 17 2/3 innings this year, hitting this number in half of his outings. While his unsightly .307 xBA comes in a small sample, we can rest easy on the fact that he was close to the bottom 20% of all pitchers last season with a .263 xBA and has allowed a .254 average to opponents in his career.
Peterson's nature as an extreme ground-ball pitcher is the main culprit here, and with few strikeouts to speak of this season, the problems have become even more glaring. The Yankees haven't only limited the punch outs in 2024, but they're .299 against ground-ballers, the second-best mark in the game.
The left-hander should get rocked here, and while the fact that he struggles with walks make this a little risky, I still think his issues are so extreme that this — and perhaps the alternate line of seven hits — are a no-brainer.
Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Cole punched out five Orioles in his first start of the season, despite being on a pitch count in his return from injury, and that amounted to a strikeout against over 30% of the batters he faced.
With a little more of a leash here, I think this line is quite short on the man who's owned better than a 30% punch out rate for the past seven seasons.
I alluded to it earlier, but the Mets have begun to lose their discipline at the plate over the past week, with a lower 8.7% walk rate and poor 25.6% strikeout rate. This should make for a wonderful spot to play Cole's strikeouts, and it's also worth noting that he recorded 19 strikeouts in just 12 1/3 innings on his rehab assignment.
There's nothing here to suggest that he's lost his ability to generate third strikes.
Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (-115)
Finally, let's spruce up this parlay a bit by targeting someone who can do some damage against Peterson.
There's no better option than Judge, and DraftKings is offering a slight discount on his total bases here. He's continued to crush lefties this year (with a 1.117 OPS in the split) and for his career, he's now hitting .304 against ground-ball pitchers with a .988 OPS.
Against the Mets, he's slashing .299/.345/.727 in 84 plate appearances, and he's homered five times in 13 games at Citi Field.
I think all signs point to Judge hitting this mark, and it's a perfect way to jet the odds up a bit and fade Peterson even harder.
