Yankees vs Mets Odds | Tuesday Subway Series Predictions
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +114 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+126 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -135 |
On Tuesday night, the New York Yankees and New York Mets will kick off the 2024 Subway Series at Citi Field. This will be the first of a two-game set in Queens before the series resumes at Yankee Stadium in July.
The Yankees (52-28) have the most wins in Major League Baseball to this point in the season but have just a two-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East. They're just 3-7 over their last 10 games as they've been hitting a rough stretch towards the end of June.
Across town, the Mets struggled out of the gates, but powered by the magic of a McDonald’s mascot, they're now 37-39, just 1.5 games out of the last wild card spot in the NL. Since returning from London, this team is 9-3 as they've rebounded nicely behind their offense.
The Yankees are road moneyline favorites at -150 on the moneyline with an over/under set at 8.5 (-105o / -115u). Read below for my Tuesday Yankees vs Mets Subway Series prediction on the run line.
New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole will make his second start of the season as he works his way back from injury. Last year’s Cy Young winner looked impressive his first time out, allowing just three hits and two runs over four innings, striking out five.
Cole threw just 62 pitches in this first start and while I think he'll be extended more tonight, I still wouldn’t expect a full workload.
While it’s a small sample and he’s still working back, one thing to watch with Cole will be his fastball velocity. His average fastball in this start was 94.7, compared to 96.8 last season. He's never averaged below 96.0 in a single season, so this could be notable if the trend continues.
The Yankees’ offense has been one of the two best in baseball this season. They're second in wRC+ and wOBA. They also rank third in ISO, first in walk rate, fourth in OBP and third in SLG. New York is fifth in hard-hit rate, first in barrel rate and third in average exit velocity.
The Yankees' main weakness this year has been left-handed pitching. Against lefties — like they'll be facing today — they rank just 14th in wRC+, 16th in wOBA and 18th in ISO.
This is one of the best offenses in the game, but they do have this glaring weakness that's been exploited all season long.
New York Mets
David Peterson is in his fifth season with the Mets, mostly being used as a backend of the rotation starter or in long relief.
This year, he's made just four starts as he's posted a 3.97 ERA over 22.2 innings pitched. His xERA of 5.64 and SIERA of 4.88 both indicate that his results have been better than expected to this point.
Peterson has allowed a 26th percentile hard-hit rate and 18th percentile average exit velocity. He's just average in the walk department and doesn’t miss many bats, ranking in the fifth percentile in whiff rate and third percentile in strikeout rate.
The sinker-baller ranks in the 91st percentile in ground-ball rate this season, which may work out in his favor as he's facing a Yankees team that hits the ball on the ground 42.9% of the time, ninth-highest in the league.
The Mets have been strong on offense as well, ranking eighth in wRC+ and 10th in wOBA. They have the 10th-best SLG, ISO and OBP to this point in the season. New York’s walk rate is near league average and it strikes out below league average at just 20.8% of the time (23rd-highest).
The Statcast metrics for the Mets look good as well as they rank ninth in hard-hit rate, fifth in barrel rate and ninth in exit velocity. They're eighth in xwOBACON, sixth in xwOBA, fifth in xBA and sixth in xSLG.
They may not be the Yankees, but this is still a good offense.
Yankees vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
On paper, the Yankees should have all the advantages. They have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner taking the mound and the best offense in the American League.
However, with their struggles against lefties and Cole still not being 100%, I think that there's some value on the Mets today.
Peterson isn’t a great pitcher, but the Yankees are considerably worse against left-handers this year. His ability to get ground balls should serve him well against a team that hits the ball on the ground often.
Cole is great when healthy, but I have concerns about him around his decreased fastball velocity and his workload today. While he'll probably be fine down the stretch, I’m not expecting much from him in what should be a difficult matchup.
The Mets are underdogs today, but I like taking them on the run line at +1.5 for the reasons stated above.
Bullpens are strengths for both teams as well, and I think the Mets can either win this game or keep it within a run if Peterson can avoid getting blown up.
