Yankees vs Mets Odds | Subway Series Finale Prediction
Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: New York’s Sean Manaea.
New York Yankees vs New York Mets Odds | Subway Series Finale
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-165 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +120 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -145 |
The New York Mets and New York Yankees will face off in the Bronx on Wednesday night in the final Subway Series game of 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Yankee Stadium, with Gerrit Cole starting for the Yankees and Sean Manaea for the Mets. The Mets came through with a 3-2 victory on Tuesday night, improving to 3-0 against the Yankees on the season.
The Yankees (60-43) now sit 1 1/2 games out of the AL East lead and have a 3 1/2-game cushion in the AL wild-card race. Things haven’t fallen apart yet, but they will need to play better down the stretch in order to make the postseason in a tough American League.
The Mets (52-48) are all but eliminated from their division race, sitting 11 1/2 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. As of right now, they're clinging to a half-game lead over the Padres for the final NL wild-card spot with a number of other teams in the mix.
With Cole on the mound, the Yankees are heavy favorites tonight at -165 on the moneyline (via ESPN Bet odds). The over/under sits at 8.5 runs (-115o / -105u) with Manaea on the other side for the Mets. The run line is set at -1.5 (+120) runs favoring the Yankees.
Let's get into my Subway Series finale betting preview and Yankees vs Mets prediction for Wednesday night.
New York Yankees
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole has made six starts since coming off the IL in June. In these 29 1/3 innings, he has a 4.60 ERA with a 4.02 xERA, 3.72 SIERA and 34 strikeouts.
It seems as if Cole has almost fully worked his way back at this point. His fastball velocity started at an average of 95 in his Major League return and has ticked back up over 96 for his last three starts. He sat at 96.8 last season, so he’s getting pretty close to where he's expected to be.
Cole struggled at the beginning of his season but has turned in two quality starts in a row, allowing just one run in each and striking out 15 over 12 innings.
I think Cole should be projected as a full-strength starter going forward as he ramps up his workload and goes deeper into games.
At the plate, the Yankees have had one of the better offenses in baseball this season, ranking third in wRC+ and wOBA. They have cooled off a bit of late, however, ranking 10th and 12th in those two categories, respectively, in the month of July.
It’s not a secret that New York has struggled against lefties this season. The Bronx Bombers rank 14th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA against left-handers while dropping from third in ISO overall to 20th against southpaws.
New York Mets
Manaea has a 3.73 ERA to go along with a 4.43 xERA and 4.28 SIERA in 101 1/3 innings in his first season for the Mets.
Manaea isn’t really a strikeout pitcher. He has a whiff rate in the 48th percentile and a strikeout rate in the 54th percentile, putting him right around league average in both.
The New York starter ranks in the 29th percentile in walk rate, issuing a few too many free passes. He has also allowed some hard contact this season, ranking in the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, 41st percentile in barrel rate and 40th percentile in average exit velo.
These balls are making their way into the air as well, as he sits in just the 16th percentile in ground-ball rate.
Offensively, the Mets have surged over the last couple of months. They now rank just behind the Yankees in wRC+ at fourth while sitting seventh in wOBA, seventh in SLG, sixth in ISO and eighth in OBP.
They also walk and strike out at rates that are slightly better than league average.
The Mets sit seventh in hard-hit rate, fourth in barrel rate and ninth in exit velocity. This has led to the 11th-best BABIP in the league.
Yankees vs Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these offenses are strong but have things working against them in this matchup.
While Manaea isn’t a great pitcher, the Yankees are far worse against lefties. I think the New York starter could have a decent outing, as the Bronx Bombers haven’t figured this issue out yet.
As good as the Mets offense is on the other side, I find myself believing in Cole and think he will put up another strong start.
I like taking the under here for the first five innings. Both starters have a chance to turn in solid starts against their cross-city rivals.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-115 · Play to -120)
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