It's been a rocky road back from injury for Gerrit Cole, but the Yankees ace looks to be making gradual improvements entering Friday's meeting with the Orioles at Camden Yards.
It was this Baltimore team that Cole initially returned against, throwing four effective innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts, prior to running into a bit of trouble over the past few weeks. He'll be hoping for a repeat performance, at the very least, as the Yankees take aim at young Cade Povich amidst a brutal stretch at the plate.
How should we bet this one? Let's go over what we know about the matchup and piece together a Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees vs Orioles MLB Parlay Picks: Friday SGP (July 12)
- Under 9 (-110)
- Cade Povich Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
- DJ LeMahieu Over 0.5 Hits (-250)
Parlay Odds: +355 (DraftKings)
Under 9 (-110)
First thing's first here: I like both pitchers to keep this one under relative control.
In the case of Povich, he's done an excellent job of pitching to contact around surprisingly low strikeout totals to begin his career. He's a fly-ball type, just like many of his stablemates, but in allowing very few well-struck balls he's done extremely well to earn a .210 Expected Batting Average.
The Yankees fare much worse against fly-ball pitchers than ground-ballers, and in general over the past week of play they've been in a miserable slump which has seen them post an 89 wRC+ with a poor .140 Isolated Power (ISO). This should be a friendly matchup for Povich, especially with the power outage the Yankees are experiencing.
On the opposite end, Cole's fastball velocity appears to be back to normal, and while he did run into trouble last time around against the Red Sox, it's a matchup he's historically had major issues with. He threw together a neat-and-tidy performance in Toronto to end June and aside from his second start back from the layoff, which featured some rust, he's looked pretty competent with 14 strikeouts and just one home run allowed over his last 9 1/3 innings.
The Orioles may have one of the best offenses in baseball, but they've also been mired in a slump like the Yankees in the past week with a similarly poor .144 ISO and few hits.
Cade Povich Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
This is a stunningly low total for a pitcher we expect to work deep into the game. Povich may own a poor 14.4% strikeout rate on the season, but it's important to note this has come in a six-start sample, and one that hasn't featured many innings on account of three poor performances led on by walks.
Povich struggled with free passes in the minors, but he improved by leaps and bounds this season with a 9.1% walk rate in Triple-A to earn the call to the bigs. In doing so, he managed to raise his strikeout rate to a handsome 32.5%, and even with the expected drop when moving to this level, you'd think there's more punchout potential than what we've seen to this point.
Yes, the Yankees are still doing a great job of limiting strikeouts, but there are numerous candidates up and down their lineup who should help Povich clear this low number. Aaron Judge is striking out in almost 30% of his plate appearances in the past week, rookie Ben Rice is over 30% over that time, and then there's an automatic strikeout waiting in Trent Grisham — playing center field right now out of necessity.
Povich has twice gone for five or more punchouts, and I think he can turn in a showing like that on Friday.
DJ LeMahieu Over 0.5 Hits (-250)
Finally, I want to back my old friend DJ LeMahieu. Nobody's seemed to notice, but the Yankees' starting third baseman has quietly begun to shake off the rust and see the ball much better over the past four games with five hits in his last 12 at-bats.
He'll get a favorable platoon advantage against the lefty Povich, which he's used to great avail in his career with a .307 average — 22 points higher than his average against righties — and despite a troublesome 2023 season, he still hit almost .260 in this split.
I think the best way to attack this same-gamer, if we're putting a juiced pitcher prop into the equation, is with an underappreciated bat. After some searching, there's no better value here than LeMahieu.
