Yankees vs Orioles MLB Odds | Friday Prediction
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 9 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +130 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 9 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -155 |
The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up the first half of the MLB season squaring off face-to-face at Camden Yards, and will likely be keeping a close eye on each other until the end of the season. The Yankees sat atop the American League East until the end of June, when the Orioles took over the top spot.
Despite boasting two of the best records in all of MLB, neither of the teams enter the weekend in the best form. The Yankees have lost eight straight series after their comeback in Tampa Bay fell short. Baltimore just got swept by the Cubs and was outscored 21-2.
With two games separating these teams in the AL East standings entering Friday, these are crucial games as both teams look to head into the All-Star break on a high note. Read below for my Yankees vs Orioles moneyline prediction for Friday, July 12.
New York Yankees
After missing the first two and a half months of the season, Gerrit Cole returned to the mound on June 19. The reigning Cy Young Award winner is still working to regain his form though.
Cole has a 6.75 ERA through four starts and is coming off a four-run outing against the Red Sox. His velocity is down across the board and he has allowed an absurd 14% barrel rate.
All of Cole’s metrics a the worst they have been in his career, albeit in a very limited sample size. A notable early change from Cole has been the use of his cutter. He has thrown it roughly 25% of the time through four starts, after throwing it just 7% of all pitches last season.
The Yankees offense has been streaky throughout this season. They go through red-hot stretches and then go through periods where they can’t hit anything. Despite the inconsistency, the Yankees still lead the league in runs scored and have hit the second most home runs.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore will hand the ball to 24-year-old Cade Povich to make his seventh big league start and second against the Yankees. Povich is the Orioles’ No. 9 ranked prospect and No. 2 pitching prospect. Injuries to the Baltimore rotation caused the O’s to rely on Povich sooner than they thought.
Despite his upside, Povich has struggled to a 6.51 ERA in the major leagues. He is coming off a disastrous start against Oakland, where he allowed eight runs in just one inning.
Povich ranks in the bottom-5% of the league in strikeout and barrel rates, two categories you do not want to mix. That means that everybody is making contact, and they’re squaring him up when they do.
I mentioned how the Yankees lead the league in runs and rank second in home runs. Well, the Orioles lead the league in home runs and rank second in runs scored. Like New York, their bats have cooled off a bit recently, but this lineup is still one of the league’s best.
Yankees vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the struggles in the last outing for Cole, there were some positive signs to point to. His fastball was averaging 96.3 miles per hour and has steadily increased in each start this season. He managed to strikeout eight batters through less than five innings; a strikeout rate in line with his career performance.
We know Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I expect to see that Cole return soon as he gets further removed from injury and back into form.
Povich is a prospect that Baltimore really likes, but has yet to show it at the big league level. He is allowing a 13% barrel rate and has managed a 5.86 K/9. Opponents are crushing his curveball and cutter.
Both offenses are capable of putting up monster numbers, but a bit cold at the plate right now. I like the Orioles offense a bit more, but they are both in a similar spot in terms of underperforming at the moment.
This is not a pick I am overly confident in, and I will likely stay away from this game. But if you’re itching to make a play, I would lean with the Yankees. We know what Cole is capable of, and the more starts he gets under his belt, the closer he gets to regaining his Cy Young form. If we see that here, this price may look like a steal.
