Yankees vs Orioles Prediction | Wednesday Expert Pick (6/19)
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole.
Yankees vs Orioles Odds
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-148 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+124 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -166 |
On Wednesday, MLB fans will get a treat as we see two of the heavyweights in the American League go toe-to-toe as the Baltimore Orioles (47-25) take on the New York Yankees (51-24) at Yankee Stadium.
On Tuesday, the Yankees took Game 1 of this three-game series, but they had an injury scare with Aaron Judge, who was hit by a pitch on his left hand (though X-rays and a CT scan were negative). This extended their lead in the AL East to 2 1/2 games over Baltimore as New York has the best record in baseball to this point.
Still on the Yankees’ heels, the Orioles hold a seven-game lead for the first AL Wild Card spot. Baltimore is 7-3 over its last 10 games and would like to keep that momentum going in order to make an attempt at winning the division.
A win won't be easy to come by, however, as Wednesday marks the return of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who is making his season debut after being sidelined by nerve inflammation in his right elbow. Judge, however, is not in the Yankees' starting lineup and is considered day to day.
Yankees vs Orioles odds for Wednesday have the Yankees as -148 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-110o /-110u). I'll be targeting a different total for my betting prediction, as I see value on a first five innings (F5) team total.
Former Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will make his much-anticipated season debut on Wednesday. Cole was shut down this spring after experiencing nerve irritation in his elbow. He's now being called upon after ramping up over three rehab starts.
It’s tough to know what to expect in his season debut, but Cole was able to get to 70 pitches in his last outing over 4.1 innings pitched. He'll likely be on a pitch limit today, but it seems like he's in good form (he struck out 10 in that last rehab start).
Last season, Cole posted a 2.63 ERA and 5.2 WAR over 209 innings pitched as he won the AL Cy Young Award. Among 44 qualified pitchers last season, he ranks fourth in both Stuff+ and Pitching+. He also had an 87th percentile walk rate as he didn't issue many free passes.
This Yankees’ offense has been the best in the American League this season. They rank second in the majors in both wRC+ and wOBA. New York ranks top-five in almost every offensive category and leads the AL in walk rate as well.
The elephant in the room revolves around the health of Judge, who left Tuesday’s contest early after being hit by a pitch. He did get some good news as his X-rays and CT scans came back negative, but it’s still unknown whether he'll be able to come back to the lineup tonight.
Judge is obviously a major presence and his absence would affect the complexion of the game, although he did state that he was hopeful to play Wednesday.
The Yankees' opponent today is a left-hander, which has been an issue for this offense in 2024. Despite how great they are overall, they're 10th in wRC+ against left handers and 14th in wOBA. If there’s a weakness in this Yankee lineup, left-handed pitching may be it.
Cade Povich will be making just his third MLB appearance against the vaunted Yankees offense. Baltimore’s fifth-ranked prospect, according to Fangraphs, Povich was a third-round pick in 2021 by the Twins.
Through these 11.1 innings this season, Povich has a 4.76 ERA with a 2.74 xERA but a 4.21 FIP.
Povich’s stuff has been less than impressive to begin his MLB career. His Stuff+ is an 85, which is among the worst in the league, albeit at a small sample size.
His minor league numbers also don’t jump off the page as his 3.18 ERA this season in AAA was the best for any season of his career for more than just a couple-game sample size.
Despite his stuff numbers not being strong in the majors so far, he did strike out 75 batters in 56.2 innings pitched in AAA this year and typically averages more than a strikeout per inning, so we could see this rebound.
For as good as New York’s offense is, Baltimore is right on its tail. The Orioles rank third in wRC+ and wOBA this season. They lead MLB in SLG and ISO as they certainly don’t lack power, but they're more free-swinging than the Yankees, ranking just 28th in walk rate and 15th in OBP.
The Orioles’ batted-ball metrics are equally as impressive as their output. They have the best hard hit rate in the league and rank second in both barrel rate and average exit velocity. Their .398 xwOBACON is the top mark in the league, coming in one spot above the Yankees.
Yankees vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Cole very well may be effective in his debut tonight, but his impact will be limited as he won’t be able to go deep into the game.
He also has a tough outing against a strong Baltimore offense that could sully this return. While I’d like to be hopeful, I don’t want to be the one backing Cole in his first start of the year.
Baltimore’s offense is one of the best in the American League, and while Cole is good when he’s fully healthy, he’s still working on ramping back up into his normal shape.
For this reason, I like taking the Orioles to score over 1.5 runs tonight over the first five innings.
Pick: F5 Orioles Over 1.5 Runs (-120, Play to -130)
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