Yankees vs Orioles Odds, Pick: Expect Plenty of Runs
Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
Yankees vs Orioles Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 -115o / -105u | -110 |
It's time to take a look at the Yankees vs. Orioles odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Sunday, July 14.
The unofficial first half of the MLB season has reached the end. The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a stalemate atop the American League East with one game against one another to go. Who will take the lead into the All-Star break?
Below is my Yankees vs. Orioles preview, along with my pick and prediction.
New York Yankees
Regression seemed inevitable for Yankees' prized free agent from a season ago, Carlos Rodon. Opponents have crushed Rodon in his past five games, allowing 4+ runs in four of five starts and 8 runs in two of the five.
Rodon boasts an unimpressive 4.63 ERA, but it matches his 4.66 FIP. So, perhaps the dreaded regression came and went.
I can’t see Rodon turning the ride unless he finds a way to get through the first inning without allowing a bunch of runs. Rodon’s season-long first-inning ERA is 9.00, and he’s fresh off allowing four runs, all of which came in the first frame.
In the curious case of Rodon, his 9.1 K/9 is the second lowest of his career (last year was worse), but his 122 Stuff+ is the best of his lengthy career. Conversely, Rodon’s location + is a career-worst 97, so he’s grooving pitches down the heart of the plate.
I can’t think of a more demoralizing fashion for the Orioles to go on the brief All-Star hiatus, then relinquishing the top spot in the AL East by virtue of a Yankees sweep.
The Yankees lost 18 of their past 27 games, largely due to offensive hardships. Since June 13th, the Yankees 100 wRC+ ranks 21st in baseball and 26th in slugging percentage. That's far from what the Yankees are used to this year, but this offense is tough to contain if Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are hitting. The two stars are bonafide AL MVP candidates, and Baltimore allowed homers to each in Saturday's, 6-1 win.
Soto compiled a pair of hits in four consecutive games, and Judge walked five times in the first two games in Baltimore. The ultimate upside for the Yankees offense relies on the ancillary pieces, such as Ben Rice, Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo, and Austin Wells converting when runners are on base.
I can’t see Dean Kremer shutting down the Yankees offense that’s more than willing to wait things out and draw walks. Only one MLB team walks 10% of the time or more — and it’s the Bronx Bombers.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles offense totally disappearing in the past five games is the prime reason for the shocking losing skid. They rank 29th in MLB with a 45 wRC+ in the past five games and are hitting just .191 with one homer during the stretch.
So, how do the Orioles regain offensive steam? By getting production from their All-Star bats, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. Both are hitting below the Mendoza line in the past five games, with a 34 wRC+ for Adley and -3 for Henderson.
I can't think of a more opportune moment for the Orioles to turn things around than facing Rodon.
On the flip side, Kremer is probably worse than Rodon, which says quite a bit about him. Kremer comes into this start with a 4.66 ERA and 5.12 FIP. The Orioles right-hander allowed seven hits and five runs in only four frames versus the Cubs.
Additionally, Kremer ranks in the 3rd percentile in barrel percentage, eighth in xERA, 28th in xBA and 35th percentile in BB%. It's hard to pinpoint the positives in Kremer's profile since there aren't many to choose from.
Yankees vs Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
I can’t comfortably back either pitcher in this matchup. Both are fade-worthy, and while Rodon is slightly more trustworthy than Kremer, that’s not saying much.
So, that begs the question — what’s the proper side for the final game in the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles series? The over. Although both offense struggled at various points recently, they are two of the better offenses in baseball. I see this one sailing over 9 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-118 · Play to -140)
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