Yankees vs Rays Prediction Saturday | MLB Odds, Picks Today
Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Taj Bradley (Rays)
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +120 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+140 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -145 |
Taj Bradley has stepped it up for the Tampa Bay Rays, who headed into the All-Star break with a .500 record. Bradley has struggled with giving up hard contact, but he has thrived in striking hitters out with an excellent pitching arsenal.
His opponent will be Nestor Cortes Jr. and the New York Yankees on Friday. Cortes has been a bit cold as of late, allowing five earned runs in his last start. He's still solid but has had issue with keeping the ball on the ground and allowing much harder contact than he has in the past.
Since the Rays’ top of the order has trounced lefties lately, Cortes could be in for a tough start.
Read more below for my Yankees vs. Rays preview, along with my pick and prediction.
New York Yankees
Bradley holds a 2.90 ERA and 3.87 xERA. Negative regression will be in the cards eventually because his average exit velocity is above 90 mph and his hard-hit rate is slightly below average. His walk rate is 8.6%, but his strikeout rate is above 30%. This could cut into what is usually an edge for a patient Yankees’ batting order.
The Rays have a 176 wRC+ since June 20 off of lefties. They've walked 9% of the time and struck out 22.3%. They have five bats above a .375 xwOBA.
Yes, Richie Palacios only has four plate appearances against lefties, but basically, the top of the order has been on fire against southpaws. For example, Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe and Isaac Paredes are above a .500 xwOBA with those same parameters in place.
In relief, the Rays have struggled constantly all season. They do have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP in the last month out of the bullpen and hold a combined 4.17 xFIP. They haven't walked too many hitters in relief and have a combined strikeout rate above 24%.
Tampa Bay Rays
Cortes has a 3.67 ERA and 3.46 xERA. Unlike year’s past, his average exit velocity is also above 90 mph. His hard-hit rate ranks in the 12th percentile, and his ground-ball rate ranks in the fifth percentile.
Essentially, he is allowing plenty of fly balls at his velocities. His walk rate is elite, but his strikeout rate is about average, so Bradley should miss more bats in this matchup.
The Yankees have a 107 wRC+ off of righties in the last month. They have a 10% walk rate and 20.7% strikeout rate, too.
Bradley could run into issues with the pitch count, but he has gone at least five innings in every start since June 1. Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton are on the IL, but the Yanks have six bats above a .330 xwOBA.
This lineup can still be potent, but they aren't on fire like the top of the Rays’ order, and this is where the gap lies.
The Yankees' bullpen has been better than Tampa Bay’s. They have a combined 3.42 xFIP, 7.1% walk rate and 25.8% strikeout rate with all eight relievers under the 4.00 xFIP mark.
Essentially, anyone who Aaron Boone goes to can be reliable. However, keep in mind that if Josh Maciejewski, Caleb Ferguson and Tim Hill may not be the right options with the top of Tampa Bay’s lineup being lefties.
Yankees vs. Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Cortes is usually a great starter, but Bradley is comparable, facing a weaker lineup and can miss more bats.
Yes, the Yankees have the better relief staff, but Tampa Bay’s bullpen has enough arms when Bradley exits.
Look for the Rays to do damage with the ball in the air, as Cortes could have trouble in this regard.
Bet the Rays on the road to win from +115 to -110.
Pick: Rays ML +115 (Play to -110)
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