Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | -135 |
| Red Sox Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
While the Yankees (61-24) have a commanding 15-game lead in the American League East, the Red Sox (46-39) have pole position in the AL Wild Card race entering play on Sunday. The Red Sox are 2-4 against the Yankees head-to-head this season, but five of the six games have been decided by one run, and two have gone to extra innings, including last night's 6-5 Red Sox victory. Below I have laid out three plays to combine for a same-game parlay at +610.
The Parlay (+610):
- Red Sox Moneyline
- Rafael Devers 2+ Total Bases
- Nick Pivetta 6+ Strikeouts
Same-Game Parlay: Yankees vs. Red Sox
Red Sox ML
While the Yankees are favored in this game, the model I use is showing this to be more of a toss up, so there's value to be had on the Red Sox moneyline. Yankees starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has struggled recently, and while he has a 3.63 ERA on the season, his xFIP is considerably higher at 4.18. In his last six starts, he's struggled mightily with a 6.16 ERA and six home runs allowed. This leads nicely into the second leg of the parlay…
Rafael Devers 2+ Total Bases
Taillon has a decent platoon split in his power prevention numbers. This season he's allowed a .214 ISO to left-handed hitters compared to a .148 ISO against right-handed hitters. The Red Sox lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters like J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story, but Rafael Devers stands above them in terms of the caliber of hitter he is.
Devers' .297 ISO against right-handed pitching this season leads the Red Sox. He already made headlines earlier in this series when he homered twice against Gerrit Cole, who was also Taillon's teammate when the two were in Pittsburgh. As I mentioned already, home runs have been a problem for Taillon recently as he's allowed six homers in his last six starts. Devers only needs a double to cover this leg of the parlay.
Nick Pivetta 6+ Strikeouts
Pivetta has only covered this number in six of his 17 starts this season. Still, Pivetta is a better pitcher at this point in the season than he was back in April. In his first five starts of the season, Pivetta completed six innings zero times. Since then, he's made 12 starts and completed six innings 10 times. He's also gone at least five innings in each of his last 12 starts.
Pivetta struck out four Yankees in 5.2 innings when he faced them earlier this season, and he should have a better chance at racking up the strikeouts if he pitches deeper in the game this time around. Pivetta has multiple seven-inning performances, one eight-inning outing and a complete game on his record over the last two months. He's flashed his strikeout ceiling in some of these games putting up 11- and 10-strikeout games.
While the Yankees aren't a particularly strikeout-heavy lineup as their projected lineup strikes out 21.8% of the time, New York is a mostly right-handed lineup, and Pivetta has a 24% K% against right-handed batters this year.
