Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -170 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -135 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +145 |
The Red Sox will look to continue closing the gap versus the rival Yankees on Saturday at Fenway Park. They're -135 favorites in a matchup between Brayan Bello (3.78 ERA, 52.1 IP) and Clarke Schmidt (4.60 ERA, 67 IP).
Find my best bet for this exciting AL East matchup below.
New York Yankees
Schmidt continues to stabilize towards better results as the season goes along. He pitched to a 6.70 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in April, but has put up marks of 3.52 and 3.18, respectively, in the two months since.
He owns above-average Stuff+ and Location+ ratings, and he always projected better than his disastrous early-season results. His xERA comes in at 4.43 and his xFIP rates well at 3.92.
Schmidt has found drastically worse results versus left-handed batters. Lefties have hit .313 with a .523 slug-rate in 30.2 innings this year — plus, a .905 OPS.
Those high marks have come with a line drive rate of 27%, which is the 10th-highest mark versus LHP in the league among pitchers to throw over 25 innings.
Boston Red Sox
Boston will hope to follow up last night's massive 15-run performance. The Red Sox have been strong versus right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 105 versus and a .331 wOBA.
Rafael Devers should continue to be one of the toughest outs in the league for right-handers, especially considering his solid splits towards most pitches.
Devers is slugging .497 in 2023 versus RHP, which is a fairly large drop-off from his .557 mark a year ago.
Since the start of last season, Devers' average exit velocity of 94 mph versus righties ranks only behind Aaron Judge.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
Aside from what will likely be somewhat pitcher friendly conditions at Fenway Park tonight, there's a lot to like about this matchup for Devers.
His second-best hard-hit rate versus right-handed pitching suggests his splits this season will likely trend closer to what they were a year ago.
In a small sample size, Devers hasn't fared well against Schmidt (0-for-5), but at this point, I'm not counting on that dominance continuing. Devers has solid splits versus breaking stuff and should be able to acclimate to Schmidt in time.
It also could work in Devers' favor that he saw Schmidt just last week.
My favorite play in this game is backing Devers to record over 1.5 total bases at +100, and I would bet it down to -115.
