Yankees vs Red Sox Odds & Prediction | Sunday Night Baseball
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 9 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -220 |
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 9 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +180 |
After splitting two incredibly entertaining games at Fenway Park this weekend, the Yankees and Red Sox will play what's sure to be a dramatic series finale on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.
The game will see Carlos Rodon looking to build off two encouraging starts against a team which has struggled to hit lefties, and a ground-ball artist in Tanner Houck who will hope to protect his 2.71 ERA against a suddenly-hot Yankees offense. Aaron Judge's recent form and historical performance against specific pitchers could be a game-changer — not to mention Juan Soto and the Yankees debut of pre-trade deadline acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is batting fifth ahead of Gleyber Torres.
Are more fireworks in store on Sunday, or will one of these pitchers stop the madness? Let's break down my pick and prediction for Yankees vs Red Sox on Sunday, July 28.
New York Yankees
It may not seem like it with all the negativity surrounding the Yankees, but they've been the fifth-best offense this month by wRC+. They remain an incredibly disciplined team with a 11.3% walk rate and 19.7% strikeout rate in July, ranking fifth and first respectively, and they've coupled that with a loud .199 Isolated Power (ISO).
Given the matchup here, which we will cover below, they should find a way to give Rodon some much-needed help. The lefty came out with what the team called a brand-new approach earlier in the week in his first start of the second half, allowing just a run on two hits and two walks over seven frames with 10 strikeouts.
He continues to generate more swings and misses with his arsenal, which is something he'd been missing over the last couple of months. His whiff rate is up from around 30% in May and June to 38.2% in July, and with that has come a season-best 36.1% strikeout rate which puts him in an elite class.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox continue to rock a miserable strikeout rate at 26% this month to just a 7.9% walk rate which should aid Rodon, who's had some issues walking batters this year. They're also considerably better against ground-ball pitchers with a league-best .315 average and .879 OPS, posting a .244 and .746, respectively, against fly-ballers like Rodon.
That should put an offense which has been driving the ship this month in a bit of a prickly position, given they're already at a platoon disadvantage. Boston's well-documented Achilles heel this season has been hitting lefties, performing 38 points worse in OPS over the course of the season, and posting a 28.5% strikeout rate in the split to just a 23.4% punchout rate versus righties.
So, Houck is going to need to bring his best on Sunday if he wants to put the Red Sox in a winning position. It hasn't been a huge ask for the right-hander this year considering his 2.71 ERA is the best on the staff by a longshot, but his ground-ball approach is not only unsustainable but a poor way to pitch to his opponent here.
Boston has committed the most errors in baseball this year with 75 through 103 games, and Houck has already allowed 11 unearned runs through 20 starts. His infield ranks 25th in Outs Above Average to boot, which makes his 55.2% ground-ball rate — in the 93rd percentile of the league — a bit unsettling.
The toughest thing about it, however, may be that the Yankees are third in the league in hitting .278 against ground-ball pitchers with an .817 OPS which ranks second to only the Red Sox.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's a stark contrast in the pitching styles here which should tilt this game in the Yankees' favor. While both offenses have been hot, New York has shown a clear preference to hit ground-ball arms like Houck while the Red Sox would much rather be seeing a ground-ball pitcher like Marcus Stroman, who they torched on Saturday.
When you factor in that Boston has been abysmal in the strikeout department, specifically against left-handers where it owns poor marks, the suddenly-elite strikeout numbers of Rodon should play up here in Boston.
The Yankees have been perfectly fine at the dish this month and should prove themselves in a solid matchup versus Houck. I'll take them at this price with pleasure.
