After a masterful offensive performance in a Game 1 win over the Royals, the Yankees will look to move further ahead in their American League Division Series matchup with Kansas City and continue their long run of success against the AL Central.
We'll watch two lefties toe the slab in Carlos Rodon and Cole Ragans, and as I expect both to have varying levels of success this one could be a good thinking exercise as to which prop markets are the most lucrative.
Let's get into my Yankees vs Royals parlay picks for Game 2 of the ALDS on Monday night.
Yankees vs Royals MLB Parlay Picks for Game 2
Parlay Odds: +675 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
While many have been fixated on Rodon's tumultuous season, which has seen him post as many great months as bad ones, there's been one consistent story in the numbers for the left-hander, and that's been his growing strikeout prowess.
Rodon has seen a ton of steady growth in this department over the last three months as he's begun to produce more swings and misses, and he posted an elite 30.1% strikeout rate in the month of September. One of his best performances was against this Royals team, where he struck out nine over six innings, and I think he'll rack up plenty more on Monday.
The Royals may have whiffed just seven times on Saturday, but we've seen a growing number of strikeouts with this team. Kansas City struck out in 26.4% of its plate appearances over the last two weeks of the season, and the Royals have been dreadful against lefties with a 26th-ranked wRC+ for the season.
We generally see strikeouts come in bunches at this stage of the season, and as Rodon lasts long in this game as New York's main innings-eater, he should get home on this number.
Next, we simply have to bet on Ragans to continue struggling with his command. He's walked two or more batters in six of his last seven outings and 10 batters over his last three outings, which spanned 19 innings.
Now, I think three walks are very much in play here, considering he's issued three or more free passes in his last three outings, but I'm concerned that the Royals will turn to the bullpen early.
New York has been one of the most patient teams in baseball, but against left-handers, it has walked at an even-greater 12.2% clip. After the Yankees drew a whopping eight walks in Game 1, including three against Michael Wacha in the first four innings, Ragans should continue struggling in this area and deliver us an easy leg.
I'd love to bet on Juan Soto to score a run here, but in order to do that, we'd need to choose a book which doesn't afford us the chance to bet on Ragans' walk total.
So I'm fine with backing the man who's recorded the second-most RBIs against left-handed pitching this year, hitting .278 in the split with a .326 xBA since the start of August. He may draw a walk here, which certainly could put us in a precarious position, but with many in this lineup doing the same ahead of him, he should have chances to drive in runs.
Soto's produced an even-better .348 xBA with runners in scoring position in the final two months of the season. So while he failed to come up with an RBI in the first game of this series, I think a man who found one in three of his final five games and is 1-for-3 against Ragans with a solo home run should be in position to cash this very lucrative leg.
Making matters more interesting, too, is the fact that Gleyber Torres enjoyed another great game in the leadoff spot on Saturday, and the man behind him, Aaron Judge, should reach base as one of the league's best at doing so.
