The Kansas City Royals will roll out right-hander Michael Wacha in Game 1 of this AL Division Series, while the New York Yankees will counter with right-hander Gerrit Cole on Saturday evening at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 6:38 p.m. ET on TBS.
Let's look at the latest betting odds and get to my Yankees vs Royals parlay picks for Game 1.
Tony Sartori's Yankees vs Royals MLB Picks & Parlay for Game 1
- Michael Wacha Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)
- Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)
- Yankees Moneyline (-205)
Parlay Odds: +379 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
While Wacha put together a solid regular season, I'm pessimistic on his outlook for the postseason. Despite posting a 3.35 ERA, he owns a 4.05 xERA and ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in xBA and barrel rate.
Specifically, we are going to fade Wacha in the prop market as he ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5, a number he failed to eclipse in his most recent start against New York.
Meanwhile, the Yankees ranked 10th in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.
While fading Wacha, I'm looking to back Cole. Through 17 starts this season, the former first overall pick posted an 8-5 record with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.
His analytics were equally strong as the right-hander ranks in the 65th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate. It is that final category that has me turning my attention to the prop market.
Cole's strikeout prop can be found at 5.5, a total he has surpassed in six of his past nine starts. He is 5-3 over that stretch with a 2.15 ERA.
That success is likely to continue against Kansas City, a team Cole is 4-1 against with a 2.77 ERA through eight career meetings. He also recorded six or more strikeouts in all eight of those outings.
Looking at it from the other side, this current Royals lineup possesses a 33.8% strikeout rate and a 32% whiff rate through 157 combined career plate appearances against Cole.
If we are backing Cole while simultaneously fading Wacha, then a correlated outcome would be for the Yankees to win this game.
Not only do they boast the starting pitching advantage, but the bullpen advantage also goes to New York. This season, its relief staff outranks Kansas City's in ERA and xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which is perhaps the clearest advantage the Yankees have. They pace the Royals in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. Add in home-field, and New York should take care of business to kick off this series.
