The Royals grabbed the momentum by taking Game 2 of the ALDS against the Yankees in the Bronx. Wednesday, they return home for a critical Game 3 and may have the edge on the mound.
Let's dive into my top Yankees vs Royals player props for Game 3 to see how we can capitalize on the Royals' pitching advantage.
Doug Ziefel's Yankees vs Royals Game 3 Player Props
- Seth Lugo Over 14.5 Outs Recorded (-140, DraftKings)
- Yuli Gurriel Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+105, DraftKings)
Seth Lugo Player Props: Expect a Long Start
Seth Lugo came into this postseason with a bulldog mentality, and he showed it in his outing against the Orioles in the Wild Card series. Lugo struck out six and allowed just one run before being pulled in the fifth inning.
We should expect him to be trusted a bit more in this crucial Game 3, especially since the Royals have relied heavily on their bullpen through the first two games of this series.
Lugo has been an innings eater for Kansas City this season, as he's gone at least five innings in 88% of his starts this season. Two of those overs came in both starts he made against the Yankees, where he completed seven innings both times.
Trust Lugo to deliver at least five strong tonight, as he's motivated to step up in a big game.
Yuli Gurriel Player Props: Schmidt Could Get Exposed
We flip to the other side of this matchup and focus on one of the Royals bats against Yankees starter, Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt returned from injury in September and had mixed results in his five starts leading up to the one he'll make tonight.
He held a 3.65 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and struck out just over a batter per inning. Those results tell us that he likely won't have a long leash, but the Royals have a good chance to jump on him the first time through the order.
Schmidt has been allowing a lot of traffic on the basepaths, and the Royals have four quality hitters who can get on ahead of Yuli Gurriel. The veteran is known for his great reverse splits, meaning he excels against righties as a right-handed hitter.
So, Gurriel has the edge when he steps into the box against a righty, but the numbers show that Schmidt's arsenal of pitches plays much better against against against lefties than righties. Schmidt's strikeout rate is 11 percent lower against righties than lefties.
That increase in contact is a bad sign for Schmidt against Gurriel, especially considering that he's below average in both flyball and ground ball rates. All signs point to Gurriel driving in a run early against Schmidt with a hard-line drive to go over this total.
