Game 4 between the Yankees and Royals features a rematch of the series opener, as Gerrit Cole is set to face off against Michael Wacha.
With their season on the line, the Royals will need to see a better outing from Wacha and I'm convinced he can bounce back against the Yankees' high-powered offense. Find my Yankees vs Royals player props below.
Nick Martin's Yankees vs Royals Player Props Game 4
- Michael Wacha Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+128 Bet365, Play to +120)
- Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
Michael Wacha Player Props: How to Fade Wacha
Michael Wacha Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+128)
The Yankees saw Wacha well in Game 1 as he recorded just 12 outs and allowed three earned runs. They walked three times, struck out three times and posted a .266 xBA average. The Yankees finished the year with the top wRC+ in baseball versus righties (120), and from the All-Star break on New York held a wRC+ of 122 against righties.
Wacha overachieved his 4.05 xERA this season and held a 4.14 xFIP. He overachieved those marks due to his strong pitching with runners on, though that appears to be more than simply good luck. His xFIP drops to 3.43 in those situations, and his strikeout rate climbs to 24.3%.
Wacha's changeup (111 Stuff+, .318 xSLG) is his best pitch, so it's no surprise that he uses it 41% of the time with runners in scoring position. That strategy may be less effective in this matchup though, given that the Yankees just saw him and know him well. His stuff rates our poorly (91 Stuff+), and I expect the Yankees to generate a lot of hard contact in this matchup. If Wacha can't work his way out of jams the way he did all season, it could lead to another ugly outing.
Logic dictates that the Royals should take Wacha out at the first signs of struggle and lean on a bullpen that was a lot better down the stretch. However, the Royals' bullpen is pretty taxed, which could make manager Matt Quatraro feel inclined to ride with Wacha longer than he'd like.
At +128, I see value in backing the Yankees to record over 2.5 earned runs off of Wacha. I'm also interested in a smaller wager on a negatively correlated parlay of Wacha recording Over 14.5 outs and also allowing Over 2.5 earned runs. That's based on my thinking that he'll get a longer leash if things go awry.
Gerrit Cole Player Props: Royals a Different Beast at Home
Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
This could also be a tough spot for Cole to bounce back from an ugly Game 1, in which he allowed seven hits and three earned runs. He struck out just four batters in that matchup, though that isn't necessarily surprising as the Royals have struck out at the fourth-lowest rate versus righties since the All-Star break.
Cole holds a Stuff+ rating of 108 over his past three starts, which is down from his average on the year, and well below last year's mark of 121. He's allowed a zone-contact rate of 86.1% over his past three appearances and has generated swinging strikes 9% of the time.
The Royals' plate discipline has been significantly better at home, where they rank fifth in BB/K and have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
The Yankees feature a deeper bullpen than the Royals, and it is in better shape entering this matchup. That suggests Cole could potentially get a shorter leash than Wacha in this matchup.
I see value backing Cole to record Under 4.5 strikeouts at even money, and would play that down to -105.
