Yankees vs. Tigers Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +160 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -192 |
As a die-hard Yankees fan, I hate everything about this team. They stink. They play with no heart and no accountability. I have reached the point where I want them to lose every game, blow it up, and start over.
With their loss yesterday, the Yankees officially clinched the under of their win total, in August. They are six games below .500 and sit in last place in the AL East. The rebuilding Tigers have just three wins fewer than New York.
Detroit is a frisky team, playing to an above .500 level during the second half of the season. The Tigers have been a top five most profitable team to bet on this season. While I hope Detroit wins this game to continue assuring that Aaron Boone is fired after the season, I found another betting angle I like more.
New York Yankees
Luis Severino said in an interview last month, “I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game, no doubt about it.” Well, he will get no arguments from me here. Yankees’ fans had hoped that Severino would fully return to form after battling injuries for the majority of the last four seasons.
Instead, he has been dreadful all season. Severino has pitched to a horrific 7.26 ERA in 15 starts. Adam Wainwright is the only pitcher who has been worse than Severino. If you look at just about every metric, Severino is having the worst season of his career.
His strikeout rate is down 20% and his walk rate has doubled from just two years ago. Severino is allowing a barrel rate of 10.5% and a wOBA of .400. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous .309 against him. To put that in perspective, only seven players in the league have a batting average above .309. Shohei Ohtani is batting .305. Facing Severino is like facing Ohtani in every at-bat.
Offensively, the Yankees have been a one-man show. Aaron Judge likely wins another MVP if he stays healthy, but instead, his injury and the lack of a supporting cast has resulted in the Yankees sitting 20th in wRC+. Even the typical “Bronx Bombers” style of home run or strikeout hasn’t been working, as they rank just seventh in home runs.
Detroit Tigers
The 24-year-old baby-faced Reese Olson will be making his 16th appearance and 13th start after debuting earlier this year. Detroit’s No. 11 prospect has amassed a 5.29 ERA and a slightly better 4.93 xERA this season.
Olson has been able to strikeout batters at a slightly above league-average rate, but when opponents make contact, it has typically been hard. He has a fastball that averages 95 miles per hour, and he pairs it well with a slider, but his sinker has been crushed.
Overall, Olson is a young pitcher who has shown positive upside but has been incredibly streaky and inconsistent. In his 15 outings, Olson has held opponents to one run or fewer in six of them, but has also allowed four runs or more in six of them.
Detroit very quietly has a fun, young team. Casual fans have likely never heard of anybody in their lineup, but guys like Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, and Riley Greene are all talented young hitters having strong seasons. Over the last month, the Tigers have ranked in the top half of the league at the plate.
Yankees vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
In 15 starts this year, Severino has allowed at least four runs in 10 of them, including four of his last five outings. His strikeout rate has plummeted, and he has averaged more than two walks per start. His slider has always been his best pitch, but lately it has been his worst.
For Detroit, the rookie Olson has shown some signs of promise but has been wildly inconsistent. He either completely shuts down an opponent or gets shelled. More than half of his starts have yielded at least four runs allowed.
Since the beginning of August, the Tigers have a .318 wOBA and 102 wRC+, ranking 14th in the league in both categories. Prior to August, this team ranked 29th with a wOBA of .292 and wRC+ of 83. Detroit is really starting to click at the plate and has looked vastly improved recently. Carpenter especially, has a wOBA of .464 over the last month, fourth best in the league over that stretch.
The Yankees are also a completely different team with Judge in the lineup. During the nearly two-month stretch from early June to late July with Judge on the IL, New York posted a wRC+ of just 84, ranking 27th in the league. Since the reigning MVP’s return, they have climbed to 18th with a wRC+ of 99.
Given both of these pitchers’ frequency for blowup outings, I like this total to go over on Monday. Detroit has been much improved at the plate recently and has a couple of exciting young bats. And New York always has a chance to score some runs when Judge is in the lineup.
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