Yankees vs Tigers Same-Game Parlay for Sunday Night Baseball
- Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-142)
- Under 4.5 First Five Innings (-140)
Parlay Odds: +596 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Tonight, the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers head to Williamsport, Pennsylvania for the annual Williamsport Classic. It is a wrinkle that Major League Baseball has incorporated into the schedule, allowing Little League All-Stars a chance to watch their heroes play in proximity to the Little League World Series.
The Tigers shut out the Yankees yesterday afternoon in Detroit, making tonight the rubber match of the series. It'll be Tigers ace Tarik Skubal against the Yankees' Marcus Stroman.
Last night, we were one leg short of yet another big plus-money winner. Today, I have compiled a three leg MLB same game parlay for Yankees vs Tigers on Sunday Night Baseball that pays out roughly 6-1 odds. Continue reading below for tonight's SGP.
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Yankees vs Tigers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Carpenter is primarily a platoon player for the Tigers, considering he only has 16 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2024. He spent most of his time on the shelf in 2024 due to injury, but when he is on the field he has been extremely effective.
Carpenter is batting .310 against right-handed pitching and has terrific batted ball metrics. He has a 17.8% barrel rate along with a solid .380 xWOBA and .581 xSLG slash line.
Stroman primarily throws sinkers and cutters, which are pitches that Carpenter has faired well against. He has above a .430 xSLG and .380 xWOBA against both pitches, and I expect him to do some damage tonight.
Stroman is a contact pitcher, so I expect to see plenty of pitches for Carpenter to square up in the early going. It is not far-fetched to think he can record an extra-base hit, or have a couple of knocks for tonight's game.
Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Yankees vs Tigers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
I love Tarik Skubal more than the casual fan, but tonight I surprisingly am going to fade his strikeouts. The Yankees hitters have a 35% K-rate against him throughout 63 at-bats, so that is the one alarming statistic to be aware of.
However, the Yankees are ninth in strikeouts per game as a team, a significant improvement from years past. They are striking out 25% as a team against left-handed pitching, but the ballpark dimensions for tonight's contest play a factor here.
If you are not aware of the dimensions, Bowman Field typically favors pitchers, but what stuck out to me is the increase of foul ground. With that said, there could be a couple of extra foul pop-ups that end up getting caught, which would help our case here.
Skubal has been the clear Cy-Young favorite in the AL all season long, and nothing pains me more than fading him here. But, the public perception of the Yankees striking out a ton is a thing of the past and I believe there is good reason that the strikeout total is juiced to the under.
Under 4.5 First Five Innings (-140)
Yankees vs Tigers | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Just as I mentioned above, the historic Bowman Field is a pitcher-friendly environment. Although I am fading Skubal's strikeouts, I still expect a dominant outing from him.
The one outlier here is Marcus Stroman, but considering the dimensions and no significant wind factor, I think his contact-friendly arsenal should work out for him here. Stroman is allowing more fly-balls than normal, but the large foul area in the outfield should earn him some extra outs that he is not normally accustomed to earning.
The Tigers offense is a complete disaster, 27th in team batting average and 23rd in runs scored per game, so I do not think they will be much of a threat offensively in the early going. Both bullpens are a huge question mark, so I'd much rather take the safer approach and target an alternate total for the early portion of the game.
