Yankees vs. Tigers Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-104 | 8 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +168 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 8 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -205 |
The New York Yankees can torch left-handed pitching, even if they have undergone a massive slump lately. But they will have a tall test with Tarik Skubal on the opposing mound for the Detroit Tigers. Skubal has been strong upon his return from the injured list, so he may be the right pitcher tasked with the job of taking down New York’s lineup.
The Yankees will throw Michael King, who has been phenomenal. He has encouraging peripherals, which means the success is sustainable — the difference is that his longest outing this season has been 3 2/3 innings. He is likely going to be the opener in this game for the Yankee bullpen, which has struggled in comparison to how they performed earlier in the season.
Since the Tigers have hit right-handers well, they should succeed against King and the Yankees relief corps. Take them on the moneyline, as long as Skubal can keep the boppers on New York in check.
New York Yankees
King owns a 3.13 ERA against a 3.43 xERA. There is a reason the Yankees have defaulted to him in relief and as an opener. He has an average exit velocity of 85.8 mph and a hard-hit rate of 29.8%. His strikeout rate is 28.3% and his walk rate is 8.6%. Again, he will throw two or three innings at most, so he is not the only factor on the pitching side for New York.
The Yankees have a 175 wRC+ with a 6.1% walk rate and 21.8% strikeout rate in August off of lefties. Their OPS is .995. They have six active bats above a .320 xwOBA but no one else above a .290 xwOBA. The bottom portion of the lineup may have trouble with Skubal.
The Yankees have a solid relief group. They have a 4.14 xFIP in August with a 24.9% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. They have five active arms (outside of King) below a 4.00 xFIP this month, but the Tigers can hit as of late, so this is concerning.
Detroit Tigers
Now, Skubal has been effective for the Tigers and may very well be their ace. He owns a 4.06 ERA against a 2.63 xERA. His Barrel rate is only 5.1% with a 43.2% hard-hit rate and 89.5 mph average exit velocity. He strikes out 28.5% of hitters, while only walking 4.5%. This may play into his hands with the low walk rate from New York off of southpaws.
Tarik Skubal, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/VHMkLAF2yn
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 23, 2023
The Tigers have fared well at the dish in August. Off of righties, they own a 110 wRC+ with a 6.5% walk rate and 26.1% strikeout rate. They have a .769 OPS. Detroit may not have an Aaron Judge, but Spencer Torkelson has been on fire off of righties this month with a .451 xwOBA. There are six other Tigers hitters with a .320+ xwOBA. They have one other active hitter above .300 — overall, the Tigers might have a slight edge over New York.
In relief, the Tigers have 4.66 xFIP with a 21.7% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate. They have three arms below the 4.00 xFIP mark, but since Skubal does not walk many batters and can throw deeper into a game than King, he is set up to be in better shape in this outing as long as he can avoid Judge.
Yankees vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Tigers have the bats that can match the Yankees, especially when a righty is on the opposing mound. King and Skubal may hold their opponents to fewer runs early on, but the Tigers have enough at the bottom of the order to push them to victory. Look for Skubal to put together a good outing and for Detroit to win. Play them to -130.
