Yankees vs. Twins Odds
| Yankees Odds | -210 |
| Twins Odds | +176 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-118/-104) |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Minnesota Twins were able to swing the tide and deliver a blowout of their own Wednesday, earning an 8-1 victory in the second meeting of their series with the New York Yankees.
However, the Yankees will once again have a significant edge on the mound in Thursday’s matinee, with Gerrit Cole getting the ball. He'll be opposed by Dylan Bundy, who has had a rough go of it lately, but has also shown he can be very effective when he's on his game.
So, which version on Bundy will we get and how does it impact our angle for this matchup? Let's take a closer look at this game to find out.
New York Yankees
After a couple of rough starts to begin the season, Cole has settled in and regained his elite form. Since the start of May, Cole has allowed 12 runs over 40 innings pitched and struck out 54 hitters in that stretch.
All of his metrics show just how good he has been of late. Cole ranks in the top 25 percent of all qualified pitchers in every expected statistic and is in the top 15 percent in strikeout, walk and whiff rates.
The Twins may have broken out against Nestor Cortes, but their outlook against Cole is bleak, especially considering his history against them. Cole has compiled 48 at-bats against the current Minnesota lineup and shut it down.
He has allowed the Twins to hit just .208 with four extra-base hits and has a 31.5 strikeout rate. Their numbers against him get even worse when you consider the quality of contact. Minnesota’s expected batting average in their matchups against Cole is a putrid .179 overall.
Given the roll Cole has been on of late and his dominant history against the Twins, we should see another excellent outing from him.
Minnesota Twins
It was a complete flip of the script Wednesday, with Minnesota taking its turn at the dish and doing its best New York impression. Although, in this matchup, we should see the Yankees lead the charge once again.
Bundy has been an enigma throughout his career. He's always had great stuff, and it was on display plenty of times when he was in Baltimore, and he even put it all together for one season in Los Angeles, but since he's come to Minnesota, he looks like the Bundy of Baltimore.
Bundy will enter this start with a 5.57 ERA, although he's generally pitched far better than that as he's given up four runs or less in five of his nine outings. This issue is that the other four starts were blowups, including his last start against Toronto, where he allowed five earned runs on eight hits in just two-plus innings of work.
His underlying metrics are up and down as well. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly every expected category but is in the top 15 percent in walk and chase rate. That is a testament to the quality and overall command of his stuff. However, when he makes mistakes, they tend to be over the plate and come in bunches.
The key for the Yankees will be to remain disciplined and wait for the mistakes. They have to be confident in their knowledge of the strike zone as Bundy will try to nibble at and then extend from in when ahead in the count.
However, the Yankees are a team who has excelled at that this season as they are second in the majors in walk rate. They also have plenty of pop in their lineup to capitalize on Bundy's mistakes over the plate, which they should do on multiple occasions.
Yankees-Twins Pick
The Yankees are in a great spot to bounce back and take this series. Bundy can't seem to pitch to the level of competition, and New York has arguably the most potent lineup in the baseball.
On top of that, New York has its ace on the mound, who has been lights out over the last month.
That said, this line is a bit hefty, but it's the best way to play this game as the Yankees should be in total control.
Pick: New York ML (-205)
