Yankees vs. Twins Odds
| Yankees Odds | -185 |
| Twins Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The series opener on Tuesday was a success for both the Yankees and Yankees backers as they bashed their way to a 10-4 victory. It was a New York hit parade as every man in the lineup recorded a hit, but D.J. LeMahieu led the way with three hits on the evening.
Fast-forward to tonight's matchup, which will appear similar on paper to the opener as the Yankees will have a decided advantage on the mound. Nestor Cortes will put his 5-1 record and dazzling 1.50 ERA on the line.
He'll be opposed by Chris Archer, whose Minnesota tenure has been filled with ups and downs. However, that up and down trend may dictate the results of this outing as he was solid last time out against Detroit.
So, will the Bombers slug their way to another victory, or can Archer step up for his struggling staff and give them another excellent performance?
Archer Doomed Against Yanks Hot Bats
The trend of inconsistent outings by Archer is not the only thing working against him in this matchup. He has never replicated his early success with Tampa Bay, and his struggles have only grown exponentially in the last few seasons. So while he may enter this start with a 3.89 ERA, he is very fortunate for it to be as low as it is.
The 33-year-old right-hander will enter this start in the bottom third of the league in nearly every expected category. Most notably, he is in the bottom 10 percentile in Expected Slugging Percentage and Barrel Rate. Those metrics accurately depict the quantity and quality of contact he's allowed this season, which turn his 3.89 ERA into a 5.52 xERA. Against this potent Yankees lineup, he's bound to regress towards his expected stats.
This New York lineup is bad news for Archer. They are scorching hot, and last night was just the latest example of what this offense is capable of. They racked up 14 hits, including three homers by AL MVP leader Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and the Giancarlo Stanton, who's fresh off the injured list.
However, those three were just the tip of the iceberg as everyone has been involved, and I mentioned that Lemahieu and Josh Donaldson were hitting the ball better entering yesterday's game. They came out of it a combined 4-for-9. Consequently, it should be no surprise to see the Yankees get on the board early like last night.
Twins Could Crack the Cortes Code
Coincidentally, I previewed Cortes's last outing against the Angels. There I talked about how Cortes is not missing many bats early in counts and that the Angels had solid numbers against lefties. Hence, they were in a good spot to get to Cortes. Unfortunately, Nestor proved me wrong as he went out and threw seven shutout innings while striking out seven.
My expectations for the Twins are tempered this time around, as Cortes may not break against them, but Minnesota has the ability to bend his numbers. Additionally, the Twins are a top-10 offense against lefties as they are 10th in Batting Average and 10th in wRC++ as well.
Minnesota has become a top-10 offense with a majority of its lineup being left-handed. You look at guys like Luis Arraez, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Max Kepler, who have all either hit the ball hard or found their way on base despite having the splits against them. Then you add those five to Byrron Buxton, Gary Sanchez, and the red-hot Jorge Polanco, and you have a potent lineup for this matchup.
Now Cortes has continued to prove me wrong, so I fully expect him to continue his magical season, but if he gives the Yanks just a quality start in this one, it will help our angle tremendously.
Yankees-Twins Pick
Last night we saw both of these clubs get off to hot starts as it was 5-4 by the end of the fifth inning. Here we could see a repeat of that as the Yankees are poised to put up a crooked number on Archer.
However, the Twins can't be counted out as they have the potential to get to Cortes. So tonight, I'm banking on both sides' bats having big performances and taking the over.
Pick: Over 8.5
