Yankees vs Twins Odds, Pick
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +160 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -192 |
Joe Ryan has been at the top of the Minnesota Twins’ rotation for some time — and for good reason. The right-hander has been impeccable at not allowing free passes and striking out batters. He will have to face one of the best lineups in baseball against righties in the New York Yankees on Thursday.
Clarke Schmidt goes for the Yankees against Ryan. Schmidt has been effective but his ground-ball rate is a tad concerning and he gives up a sizable number of hard-hit balls. Minnesota’s lineup has also been on fire against righty pitching, so the matchup may not be too favorable.
New York Yankees
Schmidt owns a sub-3.00 ERA, but his xERA is over 4.00. This means he could see some negative regression in his future. Unfortunately, that could come quickly against the Twins’ red-hot lineup.
His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 35th percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate is slightly above average. However, since he is not much of a ground-ball pitcher, he could come across some issues with the Twins.
The Yankees have hit right-handers, like Ryan, well in the last month. They own a 132 wRC+ with a sub-10% walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate. However, they only have six batters above a .320 xwOBA in that same timeframe.
Giancarlo Stanton is right below that mark, but the depth of the lineup does not match Minnesota’s against righties, even if the Yankees can hit for power better.
In relief, the Yankees have a 3.91 xFIP with a walk rate above 9%. However, only four active relief arms are under that 4.00 xFIP level; with the rest of the bullpen leaving much to be desired.
Minnesota Twins
Ryan has more encouraging peripherals in 2024 than Schmidt does. As mentioned above, he maintains a strikeout rate above 28% with a walk rate at 3.2%.
Like Schmidt, he does not induce many ground balls and holds a worse Average Exit Velocity than Hard-Hit Rate. That said, he gets hitters to chase more often and has an xwOBA under .260. By comparison, Schmidt’s xwOBA is .326.
Minnesota's lineup has been lethal. In the last month, they have a 120 wRC+ with a walk rate of 8.4% and strikeout rate of 22.2%. They also have seven active hitters above a .325 xwOBA, which is a bit better than New York. The kicker here is that Schmidt is not going to be as effective against a comparable lineup to Ryan. Thus, this provides a boost to the Twins’ hitters.
The Twins have a 3.89 xFIP out of the bullpen with a walk rate over 9%. Overall, this looks similar to the Yankees’ bullpen. On the other hand, Minnesota, once again, has more depth in the relief staff.
The Twins have six active relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. For the most part, their bullpen is serviceable, with one exception being Steven Okert. The depth of the relief corps for Minnesota should be another edge. Ryan usually goes six-plus innings, so they can throw the best of the best, when he is done.
Yankees vs Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Minnesota gets to play at home in this matinee game with the better starting pitcher as well as a deeper lineup and bullpen. Ryan is just better than Schmidt going forward. A sub-3.00 xERA is impressive, and Ryan can miss more bats and not accrue pitches via the walk.
Take the Twins to win this game. Play them from -104 to -125.
