Zerillo’s CPBL Betting Odds & Picks: CTBC Brothers vs. Rakuten Monkeys and Fubon Guardians vs. Uni-Lions (May 1)

The CPBL, the only professional baseball league currently playing regular-season games, is back in action on Friday with two games at 6:35 a.m. ET.

The league-leading Rakuten Monkeys (9-2) return home to face the CTBC Brothers (5-6), while the Fubon Guardians (4-8) will travel to Tainan City to play the Uni-Lions (6-7).

For more information about the CPBL, check out my opening day betting guide.

Below, you can find the listed odds for Friday's games, alongside my projections, analysis, and wagers.

CTBC Brothers vs. Rakuten Monkeys Betting Odds

Brothers odds: +165
Monkeys odds: -210
Over/Under: 8.5
First pitch: 6:35 a.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday at 6 p.m. ET and via PointsBet. Get up to $200 in risk-free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Probable Pitchers: Ariel Miranda (CTBC) vs. Lisalverto Bonilla (Rakuten)

Through three starts, the CPBL's most expensive player, Ariel Miranda, has been worth the purchase for the CTBC brothers:

• April 12 (vs. Lions): 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 7 K
• April 18 (vs. Lions): 7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 10 K
• April 24 (vs. Guardians): 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K

On Friday, he'll face his toughest test yet in the Monkeys' league-leading offense, which is averaging 7.9 runs per game and crushing left-handed pitching.

The Brothers just allowed 21 runs in a two-game stretch to the Uni-Lions, 2019's most punchless offense, and remain without team captain Lin Chih-Sheng (.386 wOBA in 2019) for the foreseeable future, which takes a big bite out of their offense.

They'll turn to Miranda as a stopper, and look for a bunch of length out of their ace in the midst of a stretch of five games in five days.

He's been unhittable for two consecutive outings, and I was surprised to find him listed as such a substantial underdog to, what I consider to be, a much inferior pitcher:

Lisalverto Bonilla will make his third start, and fourth appearance for Rakuten this season, and while his game logs are fairly solid, I haven't been particularly impressed with what I've seen in those three outings:

• April 15 (vs. Lions): 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K
• April 18 (vs. Fubon): 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K
• April 25 (vs. Lions): 6.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 6 K

Miranda joined the Brothers from the NPB in Japan, where he was a relative ace for a couple of seasons: 13-6, 3.37 ERA.

Bonilla joined the Monkeys after spending time in Korea, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic, and in seven season, 80 games, and 246 innings of foreign professional baseball, he has a 5.19 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 (2.17 K/BB), including a 5.95 ERA in the KBO in 2018.

Despite his barrel chest, Bonilla rarely tops 90 mph, and his secondary stuff, which includes a curveball and changeup, doesn't approach Miranda's splitter.

He needs hitters to chase in order to generate whiffs, whereas Miranda can get them up and down the strike zone:

Over the course of a full season, I project Miranda as one of the better starting pitchers in the CPBL – with a FIP of around 4.00 – and I think that that's being conservative.

Meanwhile, I project Bonilla for a 4.50 FIP, still better than league average, and I feel that that's being generous.

Even still, I have this game lined right around a pick'em, with the Monkeys ever so slightly favored, and I anticipate that you'll see a relatively average run environment despite the low total.

As a result, I bet the Brothers at +177 (implied 36%), nearly a 14% edge compared to my projection at 49.8%, and I would continue to bet them down to +140 (implied 41.5%), about an 8% edge compared to my projection. Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

Furthermore, I bet Over 9 (-115) for a half-unit, a 7.7% edge compared to my projection at 11.3, and I would continue to bet that up to 9.5 (-110), a 6.2% edge.

CTBC Brothers vs. Rakuten Monkeys Picks

• Brothers (+177, 1 unit)
• Brothers/Monkeys, Over 9 (-115, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

Fubon Guardians vs. Uni-Lions Betting Odds

Brothers odds: -195
Lions odds: +155
Over/Under: 11.5
First pitch: 6:35 a.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday at 6 p.m. ET and via PointsBet. Get up to $200 in risk-free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Probable Pitchers:Henry Sosa (Fubon) vs. Chiang Chen-Yen (Uni)

With Sosa on the mound against Chiang, I have the Guardians projected as the most substantial favorite in any 2020 CPBL game thus far.

Sosa compiled a 2.95 FIP and 2.32 DIPS ERA in 2019, compared to marks of 5.61 and 4.71 for his opponent, while the latter also has the weaker bullpen backing him up.

Furthermore, Sosa has been utterly dominant against the Lions over five starts: 4-1, 1.06 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 31 IP, 36 K, 3 BB; and extremely solid in all three of his 2020 outings, though his last start left a little to be desired:

• April 14 (vs. Brothers): 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
• April 19 (vs. Monkeys): 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 4 K
• April 25 (vs. Brothers): 6 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 K

He has elite stuff for the CPBL level – a powerful fastball, paired with a sharp slider and changeup – though as I have seen already in this league, he may not get all the calls that he wants when facing a domestic pitcher:

Chiang Chen-Yen has pitched for the Lions since 2014, posting a career 4.94 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in the CPBL; and his stats haven't necessarily improved in recent seasons.

I have mentioned previously that I admire his Astros/Rays-esque plan of attack – to increase effective velocity by loading up on high fastballs and low curveballs:

But on his off days, he gets smoked – allowing at least five runs or more in nine of his 20 starts dating back to last season.

The total on this game looks just about right to me, but either Chiang is getting more respect, or Sosa is getting less respect than each deserves, and this looks like the Guardians' game to lose.

If you have followed my baseball bets since the beginning of last year, you might have heard me say that I don't go above -160 (roughly a 100-win pace in an MLB season) when playing a favorite; it's high risk and low reward in a sport with so much variance over a one-game sample.

That said, when I see a 10% edge compared to my projection, I'll always play that, so I bet 1.75 units to win one unit on the Guardians at -175 (implied 63%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

Alternatively, I would lay the run line at -1.5 (-130) on the Guardians, as I rarely see a gap so large (2.74 runs) in my projected score.

I may also look to add more on the Guardians later, once first-five innings lines are available, so check back closer to first pitch for any additional plays.

However, the total looks to be spot on, and I'll pass on any play there.

Fubon Guardians vs. Uni-Lions Picks

• Guardians (-175, 1 unit)

[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

Full CPBL Betting Card for May 1

• Brothers (+177, 1 unit)
• Brothers/Monkeys, Over 9 (-115, 0.5 units)
• Guardians (-175, 1 unit)

CPBL Year to Date: 19-11 (+7.24 Units)

[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]