Timberwolves vs. Clippers Odds & Betting Predictions - December 5, 2024

I don't usually play 3s props unless I love the spot and I was able to go back and rewatch every Naz possession from when they played last week. Naz went 1-6 from three vs. LAC but all six of his 3PA were considered open and 5/6 were graded wide open. Naz shoots a team-high 39.7% on 3PA that are considered wide open and LAC allow the 9th highest wide open 3PT FREQ%. Rewathcing the game, Naz wasn't just magically open on the 3s but was open because LAC's focus on defending the paint. They collapse on every drive regardless of who it is and Naz mainly operates as a stretch four from the corner. Specifcially on Ant PnR action, Zu was stepping and Dunn fighting over the screen so Ant immediately saw two bodies, but because it's Gobert/Randle who set the screen and roll, someone has to help to cover the paint and that was mainly Harden who was leaving Naz at the arc. He's covered in 12/19 games when playing 20+ MIN and 6/8 on the road. LAC rank T10 in C&S FREQ% and Naz has covered this line in 5/8 vs. the T10 in C&S FREQ% and 3/3 vs. those teams on the road. Naz AVG 5.2 3PA on the season and 98% of those attempts are considered open/wide open. When Naz takes 4-6 3PA in a game, he's covered this line in 6/9 games and 3/4 on the road. When Naz has played a team T10 in wide open 3PT FREQ% and taken at least 4s, he's covered in 5/6 games w/ the only miss being against LAC. The game vs. LAC was also one where you'd expect offensive efficiency to drop. It was a day game on Black Friday and neither team scored 100.