The Clutch Player of the Year Award is entering it's third season. It's been a wild ride as voters try to navigate this new award, so let's look at a recap of what happened over the first two years.
In the 2022-23 season, De'Aaron Fox had an insane clutch season as the Kings went 48-34. Fox scored the most points in crunch time, shot incredibly well, and the Kings went 22-17 in the clutch. He also had 15 shots to tie or take the lead in the last two minutes, second in the NBA.
In the 2023-24 season, Stephen Curry hit a buzzer-beater in February that likely sealed the award for him, as the Warriors went 46-36. The Warriors were 23-20 in the clutch, Curry scored the most total points in the clutch, and he hit 18 shots in the last two minutes to tie or take the lead (somehow sixth in the NBA). The award was close, as he just barely eked out DeMar DeRozan, who finished second after finishing third the prior season.
One note about voting is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last year was the only top-three vote getter on a team with over 50 wins. The other five finished with between 39-48 wins, which suggests we should be looking for a winner on a team that will be slightly above average instead of a juggernaut.
The other piece about this award: It made a lot of sense to bet in the middle of the season. Curry was +800 in the middle of the year, when he should already have been the favorite, and DeRozan was +10000 when he was in striking distance. We will have a small sprinkle here for the preseason, but my plan is to check on the leaderboard over the course of the season and build a strong portfolio of guaranteed profit.
Let's dive into my NBA Clutch Player of the Year picks.
NBA Clutch Player of the Year Picks
- Trae Young (+2500 via FanDuel)
Who Wins the Award?
The NBA has nebulous criteria, but given the voting patterns, it's possible to figure out what the voters are looking for. I've built out an algorithm that takes into account the following five criteria:
- Baskets in the last two minutes to tie or take the lead
- Total team wins in the clutch
- Total points in the clutch (this measures the amount of games by your production)
- Points per game in the clutch
- Field goal percentage in the clutch (a measure of your efficiency)
We already covered how the winner of this award will likely come from a team that wins between 37-50 games. They will also not come out of nowhere, as in they will have shown an ability to be solid in the past in the clutch. Both Fox and Curry had strong clutch showings in the past.
Another factor is we want a player who is his team's clear, primary clutch option. The year Fox won, he was the Kings' only clutch option — same for Curry last season. If you have to share the ball, it's tough to put up enough stats.
The last part is it almost certainly won't be a repeat winner. With the award being new, voters will want to spread it around. Fox had a great clutch season last year, but he received almost no votes. It would be very tough for Curry to repeat.
Breaking Down the Realistic Candidates
To start with, I'm going to eliminate all candidates who will be sharing the clutch (DeRozan/Fox and Damian Lillard/Giannis Antetokounmpo, for example), candidates who are not their team's primary option, and players who have never been ranked top 11 by either the voting block or my previous rankings. These are the players who fit those criteria:
Nikola Jokić (+4000)
Jokić is the best clutch player in the NBA. Over the last five seasons, my measure has him finishing first, 11th, second, second, and first. The Nuggets aren't going to be as good, so is there a chance voters decide to give it to Jokić if they are looking elsewhere for MVP (which seems likely)? I think that's really unlikely.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+1200)
The Thunder are going to be way too good for Gilgeous-Alexander to contend for this award. We have seen both Jokić and Joel Embiid lose this award as they won MVP, and the Thunder will probably play fewer close games with their increased depth.
Anthony Edwards (+1500)
Edwards is young and may not end up figuring in the MVP race. But although his reputation is ahead of his production, he hasn't shot well in the clutch and is unlikely to truly factor here.
LeBron James (+4000)
James is getting old, so games played is a concern. He has played between 28 and 31 clutch games the last three seasons, after playing 45 clutch games his final season in Cleveland. He takes a lot of shots in the clutch, and voters would love to give him this award if he deserved it.
That said, he is a candidate to keep an eye on since the Lakers profile in the exact correct win range. The biggest LeBron demerit? He hasn't played more than 29 clutch games in a season yet with the Lakers. Winners are typically playing closer to 40, with no player who has finished first or second by my rankings any year playing less than 31 clutch games.
For whatever reason, the Lakers avoid clutch games, which makes James a candidate to pass on.
Jimmy Butler
Remember Jimmy Butler? He came in second in 2023 for this award and has had a history of play in the clutch. That year, he shot 50.5% in the clutch, while last year he shot only 34.5%. While his field goal attempts were lower in the clutch last year, Butler's odds should not be this long. Miami profiles in the right win range and I think they may surprise some people. But Butler took way fewer shots in the clutch last year, only 1.7 per game, and we'd need a usage jump for him to win this award for the first time, along with staying fully healthy. There's one too many factors against him.
Donovan Mitchell (+2500)
Mitchell was hurt for a lot of last season, resulting in fewer clutch games played. He also took fewer shots in the clutch. Cleveland profiles in the right win range, but Mitchell has never had a season when he was lights out in the clutch. Could this finally be the one?
Mitchell's clutch usage dropped too much last season and I think Cleveland may be too strong for him to win this one.
Jalen Brunson (+1400)
Brunson and DeRozan are the only two players to finish top five in voting both years of the award. The Knicks look likely to be very good, Brunson could be in MVP contention, and Mikal Bridges joins the Knicks as another crunch-time option.
Trends tell us it won't be an MVP candidate or someone on a 50-plus-win team, which makes Brunson a no-bet especially with short odds.
Trae Young (+2500)
Young has received zero votes in two years of this award. Last year, he took the fewest shots in the clutch of his entire career. But since 2019, only three players have averaged at least three points in the clutch every season: DeRozan, Jokić, and Young. Last year, he hit 21 shots to tie or take the lead in the last two minutes, second best in the NBA. With Dejounte Murray gone, Young's volume in the clutch will go up.
The Hawks profile as the exact sort of team here, where clutch wins would really be noticed because they'd move the Hawks from winning 34 games and in the bottom of the play-in to 40+ games and on the verge of the playoffs. Young also played in 39 clutch games in 2022-23 and 31 last year (out of 54 played), which means over half of his games played in both seasons have gone to crunch time.
Young is the only player I'm betting now, because he is the only one who will have the combination of volume of shots, close games, and is the right quality of player. I'm betting .4u on Trae Young at +2500 on FanDuel (and would bet down to +2000).
