NBA Coach of the Year is the hardest award to predict (I have a poor track record), but the factors are fairly straight forward.
1) Go over your win total by the most wins in the NBA
2) Finish over .500
That's it. Those two factors are all you need to determine the NBA Coach of the Year. In fact, 13 of the past 21 winners met both of these criteria exactly.
Every winner went over their over/under by at least 6.5 wins and for the eight teams that didn't, we have a few other factors to consider:
- Repeat winners don't happen. Other than Gregg Popovich, no one has ever won the award with the same team.
- In 13 seasons, there was at least one team that won at least 59 games and was at least 7.5 wins over its win total (and didn't have the reigning NBA Coach of the Year). In 10 of those 14 seasons, that coach won this award.
- Of the eight coaches who didn't meet the criteria, two were essentially lifetime achievement awards, two came in second the year before, two were in their first full season (hired midway through the prior year) and two were coming off a championship. We should place extra value on coaches in these spots.
- Only one coach had an over/under of under 31 wins coming into the season and won the award (Tom Thibodeau in 2021).
- Other than Popovich, all 20 other winners hit their career high in wins with their team in the season they won.
There are eight teams in the NBA with win totals under 31 and five additional coaches (including Popovich) who are still with the team they previously won with. That leaves us with 17 teams to work through.
NBA Coach of the Year Picks
Erik Spoelstra (.4 units at +2000 on Caesars)
Mike Budenholzer (.25 units at +2500 on BetMGM)
Kenny Atkinson (.5 units at +3000 on BetRivers/Fanatics)
The 5 teams I'm not considering as real factors:
Denver, Dallas, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, LA Clippers:
I don't really think any of these coaches are real factors. For Philadelphia and Dallas, the credit would go to the star player and offseason acquisitions. Denver and Milwaukee are no longer at their peak, and again, credit would go to the star. The Clippers are just too far away.
Too weak on one side of the ball: Indiana, Orlando, Atlanta
Both these teams have an over/under around 47.5, which means they'd have to get in the high 50s for their coach to win this award.
For Indiana, that'd mean turning in a top 10-defense, which is likely impossible with this group (24th last season).
For Orlando, the offense would need to be top 10, which would require a major leap from many of its key players. That's probably out of reach (22nd last year).
For Atlanta, it would take too much to get this team out of the bottom 10 defensively, especially with Trae Young being such a weak defender.
Memphis Grizzlies (Taylor Jenkins):
Memphis has a lot of questions, and this would have to be its best team ever, or voters would need to give Taylor Jenkins the award for consistently exceeding expectations.
Jenkins may have been robbed in the past for this award. I think he is a great coach, but there are a lot of questions here, namely the center play, Marcus Smart and the health of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.
I also have no idea what to make of the bench. The Grizzlies have definite upside if everything goes well, but I don't want to bet Jenkins as the favorite.
Houston Rockets (Ime Udoka):
Udoka did a phenomenal job last year in Houston, and with this much young talent, it could come together well and get Houston to 54 wins. However, I don't think Udoka is the right choice for a favorite, and I certainly can't get behind betting him at such short odds.
LA Lakers (JJ Redick):
What would it take for Redick to win? The Lakers would need to win in the 50s and be a top-10 unit on both sides of the ball.
Additionally, Reddick, not LeBron James, would have to get the credit and it's hard to imagine that being the case.
The Lakers have almost no depth and their star players are injury risks. Too many things have to go right for Reddick to win.
Boston Celtics (Joe Mazzula):
Since 2015, a Celtics coach has finished in the top four in NBA Coach of the Year voting six times, including in each of the past three seasons. However, none of those coaches have won.
After winning the NBA title, the media will be motivated to vote for Mazzula. To get there, the Celtics will need to win more games than last year. If they can get to 65 wins, especially with Kristaps Porzingis missing time, Mazzula will get a lot of credit. The Celtics could get to that number with an offense that probably won't slow down. They'll also be pushed by a better upper echelon of east teams.
However, these odds are too short to bet now.
Minnesota Timberwolves (Chris Finch):
Finch came in second last year, and might have won if Minnesota finished as the No. 1 seed.
So much went right for Minnesota last year. It had a peak Rudy Gobert season, was the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and was good in the minutes with Mike Conley off the court. To get to 10 wins over the over/under the Timberwolves would need 63 wins, which means a top-seven offense.
For this team, that'll be tough. There's also the inevitable defensive regression as it's nearly impossible to finish that much better than every other team two seasons in a row.
New Orleans Pelicans (Willie Green):
This past two seasons have been a little crazy for the Pelicans. To get to 10 wins over, they'd need to have their offense be a top-10 unit and maintain the voodoo defensive strength that came from a strong bench, which they don't have anymore. I don't see the 50+ win upside here.
Phoenix Suns (Mike Budenholzer):
The Suns had the ninth-best offense and the 12th-best defense last season. They then replaced their head coach with Budenholzer, a two-time NBA Coach of the Year Award winner and one of the league's best regular-season coaches.
The Suns have a lot of areas to clean up, whether it's simply taking more 3s or turning it over less on offense (25th in NBA last season). I'm not sure how willing voters will be to give Budenholzer a third award, as not that many coaches have won three.
Regardless, this team is high variance, and I'm willing to buy on the upper echelons of that variance. I'm betting .25 units on Budenholzer at +2500 on BetMGM and would bet that down to +1800.
Miami Heat (Erik Spoelstra):
Spoelstra is perhaps the best coach in the NBA, and this Miami team is far from his most talented. He has consistently developed talent and brought guys from out of nowhere to regular rotation roles. No one is expecting Miami to be good as they are generally considered to be right around the No. 8 seed, but there is real upside with this team.
In 2022, the Heat had the 11th-best offense in the NBA. Since then, Bam Adebayo has gotten worse on offense, and the team's offense has cratered. The upside for Adebayo's offense is real as the team was very good when Nikola Jovic and Adebayo shared the floor as the two big men last season.
I think 50+ wins is in play for this group with some positive regression and improvement from Adebayo, and integrating Terry Rozier into the team. Jimmy Butler also has every incentive to play hard and earn his next contract. He's still a top-10 player when he is on the floor.
Last year, Spoelstra was the co-favorite. I'm willing to bet on him this season and am betting .4 units on Spoelstra at +2000 on FanDuel and Caesars. I'd bet that down to +1500.
Cleveland Cavaliers (Kenny Atkinson):
In 2023, Cleveland had the second-best net rating in the NBA with the seventh-best offense and the best defense. The Cavaliers replaced their coach, have a win total between 47.5 and 48.5 and have room to improve on both sides of the ball.
A new coach always brings tremendous upside as he could unlock new tools from players. If the Cavs are a lot better with the same personnel, all the credit would go to Atkinson.
He should be close to the favorite for this award, so I'm betting .5 units on Atkinson at +3000 on BetRivers/Fanatics. I'd bet this down to +1500.
