Scoring has gone up almost every season across the NBA, which makes points per game player props a great stat to bet.
Last season, I tracked odds posted by four books on points per game props that offered an over and an under bet. If you bet 1u on every over, you would have been down on every book, ranging from 24u to 7.8u down. On the other hand, if you bet 1u on every under, you would have been up at every book.
Like many bets, people are more interested in betting overs instead of unders, which makes unders a great bet. I'm human, which means I have more overs than unders bets here, but something to keep in mind when you go to make your bets.
In general, I'd bet these bets that are close to even, about 10 points lower in odds, or about .5 points per game (PPG) lower overall. If there is a different stopping point, I'll note it, and also other odds as can be.
Tyrese Maxey Under 25.5 PPG, -125
In NBA history, six Most Improved Player award winners have averaged at least 24 PPG, not including Tyrese Maxey last season. Five of those six averaged at least 1.2 fewer points the following season.
Last year, Maxey was given full license to shoot the ball and score and Embiid missed a ton of games. Embiid will probably play more, and Paul George will eat up a large chunk of the scoring burden. This assumes no drop off in usage, efficiency, or minutes off of his 25.9 PPG last season — we should expect at least one of those to happen. Betting .6u.
Trae Young Under 28.2 PPG, -115
Trae Young has only been over this number twice in his career. His playmaking role should continue to rise, but not necessarily his scoring.
They also enforced more strict rules about calling fouls over the second half of last season (which is likely to carry over), which led to Trae averaging 22.5 PPG from January on. Betting .5u.
LeBron James Props
- Over 24.6 PPG, -115, .25u
- 25+ PPG, +115, .25u
Will LeBron drop off in his age-40 season? Probably, we can expect some. But he hasn't averaged under 25 PPG since his rookie season.
LeBron will still score, have a playmaking role, and play minutes to help this team win. I'm counting on him topping 25+ yet again for the 21st time.
Cam Thomas Under 24.5 PPG, -115
Averaging over 24.5 PPG is hard, especially on a bad team. Over the past 17 seasons, it has been done only six times. Most of those other players are multi-time All-Stars.
We have seen gunners be allowed to shoot the lights out on bad teams, and it's just hard to score this much when the defense keys in on you.
Whether it's Jordan Poole on the Wizards last year, or Collin Sexton on Cleveland in 2021, shooting so much only gets you so far. I think Cam Thomas is a fine player but not a future All-Star, and this total implies the latter. Betting .5u.
Collin Sexton Props
- 20+ PPG, +240, .5u
- 23+ PPG, +3000, .15u
Speaking of Sexton, these numbers seem to ignore the second half of his season there. When Sexton started last season, he averaged 21.1 PPG in only 28.8 minutes.
From the All-Star break forward, he was at 20.8 PPG. In that 2021 season mentioned above, he averaged 24.3 points and was a dominant scorer. He could be traded, in which case these probably wouldn't hit, but I think both odds are too long for numbers that are clearly in reach for Sexton based on his past.
Boston Celtics Star Player Props
- Jaylen Brown Over 23.7 PPG, .5u, -115
- Jaylen Brown 25+ PPG, .25u, +230
- Jayson Tatum Over 26.7 PPG, .75u, -115
The Celtics have often had a third scorer around Brown and Tatum. In 2024, that was Kristaps Porzingis. In 2021, they had Kemba Walker, and in 2020, they had Kemba and Gordon Hayward. Having a high-volume third scorer has lowered their scoring averages, as we saw last year when Tatum went from 30.1 PPG the year before to 26.9 and Brown from 26.6 to 23. They also had to play fewer minutes last year, as they just ran teams off the floor.
The Celtics are almost guaranteed to play more games that are closer this season, as Porzingis will be missing time and Horford is older. It's unclear how much time Porzingis will miss, but December seems the earliest, and they will be cautious when he returns.
Brown has been over this number twice, and Tatum has for three straight seasons. This assumes a continued scoring regression that ignores the current Celtics situation to me. I expect them both to easily clear these numbers.
Mikal Bridges 20+ PPG, +600
Mikal Bridges is entering a new team, where he will undoubtedly be the third option. Last year, in Brooklyn, he only averaged 19.6 PPG, and when he was with the Suns in a similar role, his high was 17.2 PPG.
It used to be really hard for a team to have 3+ 20 PPG scorers on their team, but over the last two seasons, it's happened seven times. The Knicks also have injury risks with Towns and OG, have a thin bench, and will probably need to win by outscoring the other team. This is a long shot, but it assumes perfect Knicks health and a guaranteed reduced role, neither of which are guaranteed. Betting .2u.
PrizePicks Parlay:
3-Pick Power Play (.3u):
- Alex Sarr over 9.6 PPG
- Zaccharie Risacher over 10.3 PPG
- Reed Sheppard over 10 PPG
Over the last 10 seasons, of the 30 players taken in the top 3, 27 of them have averaged at least 10.2 PPG. Alex Sarr is a likely starter on a bad team, and the Wizards have shown an eagerness to let him shoot.
Zaccharie Risacher is a likely starter, who will be set up by Trae on a team with a big scoring void to fill.
Reed Sheppard might be the most talented of the bunch but is likely coming off the bench, but he is still a talented scorer who should easily clear this number.
6-Pick (.2u):
- Three Above Plus Anthony Edwards Under 27.3 PPG
- Joel Embiid Over 31.9 PPG
- Stephen Curry Under 26.5 PPG
These other three lines are a little out of step with the rest of the market and have good value on these numbers.
Edwards averaged 25.9 last year and is not guaranteed to take another leap, especially with the addition of two scorers for one after the Towns trade.
Embiid is an offensive juggernaut who has been over this the past two seasons and whose line is at 32.1 to 32.5 on other books.
Curry's line is at 26.1 elsewhere, and while Klay is gone, the offense may give more to Kuminga, Podz, and Hield. There is also the possibility of age-related regression.
