Nothing in the NBA has me more confused than the 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year Award.
Naz Reid played well off the bench, but was a much less important piece on a winning team than Malik Monk. So, what was the difference between the two? Monk averaged 1.9 more points per game, played more in the clutch and was a better player, but Reid wasn't hurt at the end of the season and Minnesota won 10 more games than Sacramento.
Up until this year, I've been working under the assumption that averaging 15 or more points per game off the bench, and playing for a winning team, was the criteria. But my thinking has now changed.
Unless there is a dominant scorer off the bench (18+ ppg), we are now looking for the best bench player on a great team (50+ wins). When considering who will win the award, each additional team win is exponentially more valuable.
So, let's use that theory and make some 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award picks.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year Picks
Bobby Portis (.75 units at +2500 at BetMGM)
Bennedict Mathurin (.4 units at +2500 at BetRivers)
Reed Sheppard (.15 units at +5000 on FanDuel)
Voters determine winners in the following order:
- 18+ ppg, 42+ wins: Since 2006, 16 players have averaged 18+ ppg off the bench. Those players either won this award, or lost to someone who averaged 18+ ppg off the bench.
- 49+ wins, 12+ ppg: If no one averaged 18+, then voters look for players who played for good teams and scored points off the bench. Of the past 19 winners, 17 won 49+ games.
Every winner over the past 19 years has fallen into one of those two categories. Since 2007, all but one winner's team had an over/under of at least 43.5 wins, with the average being 50.
I'm going to go through the teams below — in order of win total, down to 43.5 — and narrow down the best candidates.
Boston Celtics:
O/U: 58.5
Candidates: Sam Hauser (N/A, 9.0 ppg), Payton Pritchard (+10000, 9.6 ppg)
The Celtics are awesome and a lock to finish with 49+ wins. While Pritchard and Hauser both increased their scoring last season, they are each such minor parts of this team and unlikely to reach 12+ ppg.
OKC Thunder:
O/U: 56.5
Candidates: Alex Caruso (+2000, 10.1 ppg), Isaiah Hartenstein (N/A, 7.8 ppg)
If the NBA ever starts voting for the best basketball player off the bench, one of these two would win the award. But given that the league didn't for players like Al Horford or Andre Iguodala, I don't expect it to start now. One of these two will also start, though it's not clear who. Neither has ever averaged 12+ ppg.
New York Knicks:
O/U: 54.5
Candidates: Miles McBride (+4000, 8.3 ppg)
McBride is the first real candidate. His scoring has gone up every year, he's a clear bench player and the Knicks lost a lot of scoring off last year's team. They also added a near-equivalent amount. I think McBride has the potential to hit the 12+ marker, but if he does it'll be due to injuries, and then the Knicks might not be as good.
Philadelphia 76ers:
O/U: 52.5
Candidates: Eric Gordon (+10000, 11.0 ppg), Guerscgon Yabusele (N/A, N/A)
Gordon is a past winner, but would be one of the oldest winners, is on the decline and won't be relied on much. These odds are long, especially considering the likelihood of the Sixers winning 50+ games and Gordon's track record with this award. But his role is far from guaranteed. They also could upgrade this spot throughout the season. I'm adding Yabusele to the mix, as he's a new commodity and we don't know what to expect. I think he is someone to keep an eye on because the upper-echelon potential is a winner.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
O/U: 52.5
Candidates: Naz Reid (+1100, 13.5 ppg), Donte DiVincenzo (+1400, 15.5 ppg)
Back-to-back winners are rare, and I think Reid has almost no chance. DiVincenzo was incredible last season, averaging 15.5 ppg and shooting 40% on 8.7 3s per game. If that player is coming off the bench for Minnesota, and the Timberwolves finish with 50+ wins, he will probably win this award.
The trouble is that there is a real downside. DiVincenzo shot similarly the year before in Golden State, but had much lower volume and was less featured in the offense. Last year, in the 35 games he played without Julius Randle, where he was the second offensive option, he averaged 21 ppg. In the 46 games with Randle, that dropped to 11.4 ppg, which is more in line with his production at previous stops. The Wolves have more scoring options now than the Knicks did at the end of last year. Situations often change, and the uncertainty here is too high.
I'd bet DiVincenzo at +2000 or longer, but not at +1400.
Denver Nuggets:
O/U: 51.5
Candidates: Russell Westbrook (+2000, 11.1 ppg)
Last year, Reggie Jackson averaged 10.2 ppg off the bench for the Nuggets and his efficiency was decent. Westbrook came off the bench for the Clippers after the James Harden trade, but was way less efficient than he was the year before as a starter.
Nikola Jokic helps players be better. He wanted to play with Westbrook (for some reason) and from a simple scoring perspective, the Nuggets are missing 20 ppg from last season's team.
Milwaukee Bucks:
O/U: 50.5
Candidates: Bobby Portis (+2500, 13.8 ppg)
Portis is entering his fifth season with Milwaukee. In his first season, he averaged 11.4 ppg and finished ninth for in Sixth Man of the Year Award voting as the Bucks won the title. The following year, Brook Lopez missed most of the year and Portis started.
In the past two seasons, Portis has averaged 14.1 and 13.8 ppg, come off the bench as the Bucks won 58 and 48 games and finished third in this voting.
Portis seems like a lock to finish in the top three and average between 13-15 ppg off the bench. Could he be the default candidate? If things go more smoothly for the Bucks, could he win?
Portis is an obvious candidate to bet and could finally get recognition for his work with the Bucks. I'm betting .7 units on Portis at +2500 at BetMGM. I'd bet that down to +1400.
Dallas Mavericks:
O/U: 49.5
Candidates: Spencer Dinwiddie (+5000, 10.5 ppg), Jaden Hardy (+8000, 7.3 ppg), Naji Marshall (N/A, 7.3 ppg)
I don't think any of these players have a chance to average 12+ ppg, especially with a starting five locked in with high scorers.
Cleveland Cavaliers:
O/U: 48.5
Candidates: Caris LeVert (+1600, 14 ppg)
In 2022-23, the Cavs went 51-31 as LeVert started 30 games, averaged 30 minutes and scored 12.1 ppg. Last year, the Cavs went 48-34, LeVert started 10 games, averaged 28.8 minutes and scored 14.0 ppg.
The Cavs played much of last season without their core players, and when LeVert played 35 or more minutes, they were 2-7. I'm a Cavs believer, but LeVert reminds me of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Norm Powell, my two favorite bets from the past two years.
When those teams needed a scoring punch from Hardaway or Powell, they were a worse team. Once they got better, the players' roles were reduced, because they weren't such efficient scorers. I see LeVert in the same mold and think the Cavs' success is negatively correlated with his scoring, which makes this a pass at these odds.
Orlando Magic
O/U: 47.5
Candidates: Cole Anthony (+5000, 11.6 ppg), Jonathan Isaac (+6000, 6.8 ppg)
Isaac was really good defensively last year and was a key difference-maker for the Magic. He also won't ever score enough points. Meanwhile, Anthony's scoring and minutes have gone down for three straight seasons.
Memphis Grizzlies
O/U: 47.5
Candidates: Luke Kennard (+7500, 11.0 ppg), Brandon Clarke (N/A, 11.3 ppg), Scotty Pippen Jr. (N/A, 12.9 ppg), GG Jackson (N/A, 14.6 ppg), Vince Williams (N/A , 10 ppg)
Surprisingly, more of the Grizzlies don't have odds up. Williams and Jackson are slated to be out for a while, making them unlikely to be factors, though Jackson could be intriguing before his return. Kennard and Clarke haven't topped 12 points since 2020, and are unlikely to do so this season. Pippen has played 27 career games and is a super intriguing prospect who could help off the bench, but can't be considered a real factor this early in his career.
Sacramento Kings
O/U: 46.5
Candidates: Malik Monk (+650, 15.4 ppg)
I think Monk was robbed last season. However, the acquisition of DeMar DeRozan likely kills his value. Monk played a lot in crunch time last season, but won't do so as much this season. His scoring average is almost certain to go down, as well his playmaking responsibilities.
This line assumes he will have the same role he did last season, which seems incorrect. It also assumes the Kings will win a lot of games, but I'm just not sure that's possible for this team. Monk is probably the correct favorite, but not at odds this short — especially considering how infrequently favorites win this award.
Indiana Pacers
O/U: 46.5
Candidates: Bennedict Mathurin (+2500, 14.5 ppg)
Last year, Mathurin got hurt and was replaced as a starter by Andrew Nembhard. Now, Mathurin is locked into the sixth man role.
I'm not sure how much offense the Pacers will need off the bench, or if they will rely on Mathurin to create. This is just the right confluence of win total and points average to make it worth a nibble.
I'm not a huge Mathurin believer overall, but the situation, combined with his past production and Indiana's great offense, make this plus EV and a must-bet. I'm betting .4 units on Mathurin at +2500 at BetRivers and DraftKings. I'd bet this down to +2000.
Phoenix Suns:
O/U: 47.5
Candidate: Grayson Allen (+4800, 13.5 ppg)
Allen will be coming off the bench, so Tyus Jones can start. Allen thrived with the starters last year, but a minutes reduction, and corresponding points reduction, are expected. So, even if Phoenix wins enough games, Allen will probably return to the 10.4 ppg he averaged in Milwaukee.
New Orleans Pelicans:
O/U: 46.5
Candidates: CJ McCollum (+1400, 20 ppg), Trey Murphy (+4000, 14.8 ppg)
I have no clue who this team will start. DeJounte Murray, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are probably locks to start. Herb Jones, as the best defender on the team, also probably has a guaranteed place.
I'd give both McCollum and Murphy between a 25-50% chance to be eligible for the award. Coupled with the relatively low chance the Pelicans win enough games, and the amount of scorers on the roster, I'd put both candidates at too many question marks to bet now.
Miami Heat
O/U: 44.5
Candidates: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+2500, 11.9 ppg), Duncan Robinson (+10000, 12.9 ppg)
I'm a believer in the Heat, as well as in Jaquez as a future real contributor. I'd give Jaquez a 2-3% chance to win, if everything goes right. Typically, players like Jaquez have long odds, but at the same odds as Mathurin and Portis, I'm passing.
LA Lakers
O/U: 43.5
Candidates: Gabe Vincent (N/A, 3.1 ppg)
The Lakers have one of the worst benches in the NBA and I don't think there are any real candidates here.
Golden State Warriors:
O/U: 43.5
Candidates: Buddy Hield (+2200, 12.1 ppg), De'Anthony Melton (N/A, 11.1 ppg)
Steve Kerr said every starting position, other than Steph Curry's, is open. That means it could be worth it to keep an eye on some of Golden State's other players.
This rotation is in tremendous flux, won't be consistent and lacks defined roles. Hield could be starting, or playing 10 minutes a night, which makes it impossible to bet him at odds that aren't particularly long.
Houston Rockets:
O/U: 43.5
Candidates: Reed Sheppard (+5000, N/A)
Sheppard has five starters locked in front of him, including Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet — the former No. 2 pick and the Rockets' big free agency acquisition from last offseason.
But Sheppard is a bucket. Of everyone on this list, Sheppard has the best chance to average 18+ ppg.
Sheppard could also have a big impact on the Rockets hitting this over. If the rookie is an effective scorer off the bench, Houston will be much better. NBA Coach of the Year odds have Ime Udoka as a co-favorite, which is Vegas' indication that Houston could drastically go over its win total.
At +5000, I think there is a little value, which makes this worth the sprinkle. I'm betting .15 units on Sheppard at +5000 on FanDuel, but wouldn't bet this any lower.
The Sixth Man of the Year Award is one of my favorites to analyze and bet and felt a deep dive was necessary to find the best candidates.
I built out a simulation to see who's the most likely to win this award and Portis and Mathurin came out with the most value. They were followed by Sheppard, but Gordon, DiVincenzo and Westbrook could have some value if you believe in them or the odds get longer.
