It's certainly not the most loaded draft, but Alex Sarr appears to be the most certain top-three pick in the draft.
Sarr is a big favorite to go No. 2 in the draft and widely expected to go with one of the top few picks, and in a topsy-turvy draft, he's the one name that's been right near the top since the start of the season.
So what's the story with Alexandre Sarr? Let's do a brief scouting report.
Sarr is from France but spent the last year Down Under playing with Perth. He's a young 19 and has a long, thin frame at 7-foot-1 with a plus wingspan and a standing reach over nine feet.
Sarr is the size of someone like Evan Mobley or Chris Bosh, playing at 215 pounds in season, so he'll need to add strength but will likely always be more on the slight side.
That light playing weight could mean a longer path to success in the NBA, and it might also mean looking elsewhere in the Rookie of the Year race.
Sarr is a really fluid, comfortable athlete at his size. He's clearly comfortable with the ball in his hands and has a natural dribble. His shot also looks natural, both his free-throw stroke and his 3-pointer. The results are hit or miss — around 30% on 3s for the season — but it's more important that he's confidently taking so many pull-up and mid-range jumpers, showing both his and his coaches' confident in his shot making.
Sarr is also a nifty passer, and it's easy to see him succeeding on the short roll with his passing and decision making and his ability to roll to the basket for a lob or finish. The offensive package is a work in progress, but there's a lot to like. Sarr probably won't be a star on that end, but he certainly looks like a dribble-pass-shoot 7-footer, the sort of guy every team wants these days to play five out and space the court.
Of course, Sarr's value likely comes more on defense than offense, much like most big men in the NBA.
Sarr has a real mean streak defensively, especially at the rim, where he swats shots with real power to protect the basket. He's a big time athlete, and his athleticism and size helps Sarr make up for his sometimes less-than-ideal positioning on that end.
The quick-twitch athleticism also help Sarr cover ground recovering in defense or closing out on a shooter, and he should be good in scramble situations as well.
This is the exact sort of defender that every NBA team wants deep into its playoff run. Unlike fellow big man Donovan Clingan who will likely be limited to mostly drop defense, and who may end up played off the court in the depths of the playoffs, Sarr shapes up as a 16 gamer, the sort of player who gets even more valuable in the game's biggest seasons.
Sarr's scheme-versatile defense may be his biggest and most important strength.
So what is Alex Sarr at the next level?
He compared himself in interviews to Giannis Antetokounmpo, another international star, but that's a pretty lofty comparison on both ends of the court.
More realistically, Sarr could be something like a super-charged Jaren Jackson Jr. or Jabari Smith. He'll probably start more at the four in a league playing more two-big lineups these days and end up closing games — and his career — at the five, with the direction the league is going.
That's why Sarr's shot is so vital. Every team in the league wants an athletic big man that shoots and protects the rim. That's the player that unlocks every single lineup.
In a draft full of uncertainties, Alex Sarr may be the one safest bet at the top of the draft.
