The 2024 NBA draft kicks off Wednesday, June 26, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.
G League Ignite forward Tyler Smith currently has -130 odds (56.5% implied probability) on DraftKings to be drafted in the first round. Check out why that bet has value below.
Tyler Smith to be Drafted in First Round (-130 DK)
Smith boasts excellent size for a forward due to his 6-foot-10 frame and 7-foot-1 wingspan. He displayed his athleticism and agility at the combine by recording a 38” vertical and posting the seventh-best lane agility time, which measures change-of-direction and coordination at top speed.
The 19-year-old is huge, fast, nimble and plays above the rim. From a physical perspective, Smith easily profiles as a first round selection.
Meanwhile, he owns a quick, smooth release and projects to be a quality 3-point shooter at the NBA level. It’s unlikely that the Ignite forward clears 40%, but I expect Smith to hover around 36-38% throughout his career.
Along with being a transition threat, Smith thrived as a screener this season because he could either pop, slip or roll effectively, thus keeping the defense guessing. That skill provides crucial offensive role versatility to whichever team drafts him, especially if their center doesn't possess solely a traditional skill set.
Plus, the 19-year-old crashes the glass hard.
Overall, Smith has tremendous 3-and-D upside, along with positional size and rebounding chops. It’s a championship-caliber archetype for role players, so contenders picking in the 20s should be fighting tooth-and-nail to secure his draft rights.
In terms of role and key skills, a solid player comparison is Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. if he lacked off-the-dribble scoring. Both are jumbo forwards that mostly rely on spot-up shooting and defensive versatility.
Smith Jr. averaged 13.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game this season while shooting 36.3% from 3-point territory and being a defensive plus. That production roughly represents a reasonable ceiling to Tyler Smith’s game.
Based on his strengths and weaknesses, Smith easily decimates the 56.5% probability mark needed to make the bet theoretically profitable in the long run. He has closer to a 75% first round chance to me with the number not being higher due to the Ignite's poor reputation for producing NBA-caliber players.
