2024 NBA Draft Day Intel: Where Everything Is Undecided

2024 NBA Draft Day Intel

Welcome to Draft Day, where no one knows what's going to happen.

Here's the latest intel.

Have the Hawks Locked in on Risacher?

Every major mock draft coalesced around Zaccharie Risacher as the No. 1 pick on Monday. It's not worth speculating on what the source of that was, but a few things have been consistently true:

1. The Hawks, if they keep the pick, are going to take a big, either Risacher or Donovan Clingan.
2. The Hawks have repeatedly and consistently projected that they haven't made a final decision on the pick.

This has left me a bit confused. If the Hawks have made it known they haven't decided, where is the intel that it's Risacher coming from?

However, the thought process in league circles is that while the coaching staff might prefer the more experienced and consistent Donovan Clingan, the front office prefers Risacher's upside.

Who makes the final call? Well, that's a complicated question in Atlanta, and you get different answers from the people you ask. However, ownership has been known to express its influence on various matters.

That said, the smartest minds in draft coverage have agreed it's Risacher, at least for now.

One final note: if a team were to move up, they would move up to get Alex Sarr or Risacher, with Risacher most likely. Several teams have taken calls from San Antonio over the past week, and league sources suspect their intention is to try and land a second top-five pick in the draft to land Risacher alongside Stephon Castle at No. 4.

If you were the Hawks and trying to get a trade done to either move Dejounte Murray or Trae Young, get some of the picks you sent San Antonio for Murray back or both, you would probably want to project you're taking the guy they want, right? That doesn't mean the Hawks won't just take Risacher. They probably will, based on all the mock drafts, but I at least found that interesting.

The Rest of the Top 5

It would be a considerable upset at this point if Sarr does not go No. 2. He's the heavy favorite, and he's mocked there everywhere. If a team were to trade up for Sarr, it's assumed the Wizards would just take Risacher and call it good.

What's interesting is that the Wizards are the only top-six team apparently not taking calls for the second pick. Again, I'm not saying that's not the case, but it's a little surprising, even if Washington needs top-end talent the most of any top-five team.

No. 3 is interesting. Houston would like to make the playoffs sooner rather than later. Trading the third pick gives them some options but not necessarily in that direction. Reed Sheppard has been penciled in there, but there's been serious buzz the last two days for Donovan Clingan.

Stephon Castle is the name that's starting to rise as we get within hours of the draft. The Spurs and Hornets are both thought to be high on Castle, to the point where he may be their No. 1 target. Word started buzzing Wednesday morning that the Rockets were pitting San Antonio and Charlotte against one another to move up and get Castle, which would still allow Houston to take either Clingan or Sheppard.

The league speculation is that Houston will be where Memphis tries hardest to move up and get Clingan. The Grizzlies have been linked to Clingan since early in the draft process.

No. 5 is a bizarre spot. The Pistons need talent, obviously. Matas Buzelis was considered in contention for the No. 1 pick until the G League Ignite season revealed some flaws. There are connections between Buzelis' representation and Pistons leadership. Still, no one knows what new head of basketball operation Trajan Langdon thinks, and that matters most.

If Clingan falls, this could be where Memphis strikes. Give up some future assets to move up and get the guy you want at No. 5 at a cheaper price than the No. 3 pick. That's what the Athletic's Sam Vecenie is predicting.

League sources suggested this week that Memphis has put as many as three picks (with protections) up to try and move into the top five, including the No. 9 pick. If we assume Clingan is the target, that could put him at No. 3, No. 5 or No. 6 from Charlotte (San Antonio's trade-back appetite at No. 4 is thought to be less, especially with their other pick at No. 8).

… If the Hawks don't take him first.

Have I mentioned this draft is nuts?

Other First-Round Thoughts

Zach Edey's over/under is listed at 15.5 on draft day, and the Bulls at 11, Kings at 13 and Blazers at 14 have interest, on top of any reach potential for a team in the top 10. Edey is +700 to go in the top 10, but the safer play is on his under.

Late first-round picks are always fickle; the boards shift greatly and are much more volatile. That said, Jonathan Mogbo has gained a lot of momentum from workouts. He's +330 to go first round, and I believe a team takes a shot on him.

Ron Holland is +115 to go top 10 at Caesars, and that's worth a small play. Memphis has been attached to him if they keep the ninth pick, and Holland is someone who was thought to be a top-five pick early in the draft cycle. Those players often go higher because they never dropped as much on team boards as they did on mock drafts.

Castle to be drafted before Matas Buzelis is -170 on DraftKings, which is incredible value. Buzelis is tantalizing, but the team most connected to him (Detroit) picks after two teams that are high on Castle (Spurs and Hornets).

There were some bizarre rumblings that a top-five team might take a reach on Rob Dillingham Thursday night. However, Dillingham had an ankle injury that hampered his workouts and slid.