Let's take a look below at the winners and losers from the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery.
Winner and Loser
Atlanta Hawks
I'm not dabbling in hot-takeism here. This is genuinely a mixed result because of where the Hawks are in their franchise arc and the context of this draft. If the Hawks had jumped to No. 1 last year and gotten Victor Wembanyama, they would have reinvented the next 15 years of their franchise.
Instead, this is going to likely reinvent at least the next five, but we have no idea how.
One league personnel staffer remarked to me this week that a team getting the No. 1 pick in this draft "was likely going to get a lot of people fired." There's just not a consensus No. 1 prospect, which creates a lot of risk. This draft has been compared to the 2013 draft. As a refresher:
- No. 1: Anthony Bennett – Played four seasons in the NBA, one of the worst No. 1 picks ever.
- No. 2: Victor Oladipo – Eventually traded from Orlando before landing in OKC, reinventing himself as a star player, becoming an All-Star player in Indiana. Has been injured and passed through several teams, unable to finish a season in some time.
- No. 3 Otto Porter – Just retired from the NBA after an unremarkable career outside of one great season for the Warriors in 2022, winning a title.
- No. 4: Cody Zeller – Decent long-time veteran rotation player.
So, yikes.
This could also be a draft where there are good players, just not the No. 1 pick. So if Atlanta just picks the wrong side of a coin flip, it can be devastating in terms of lost potential.
Then there's the trade component. The Hawks have known to be likely movers on the trade block this summer, with both Dejounte Murray and Trae Young strong possibilities to be moved, if not both.
The Hawks can:
- Draft a player with the No. 1 pick like Alex Sarr, pair him with Murray and trade Young for scoring and defensive help.
- Draft a player with the No. 1 pick like Sarr, pair him with Young and trade Murray instead.
- Trade the No. 1 pick for a third star to pair with Young and Murray.
- Trade the No. 1 pick with Young or Murray for an absolute haul.
Having options is really good, that's why they're a winner (and having the first pick in any draft is objectively good). But having so many options and trying to sort through them is tricky, too. This is also the kind of move that can convince a front office or ownership group that they've been given the key to a better path with the team they have that they like. "No need to trade one of the guards; this pick changes everything!"
That's dangerous. The Hawks have been fairly broken. There's no reason for them to have underperformed so dramatically the past two seasons given their talent, coaching and relative health. There needs to be a recognition that things have to change and a top rookie in a bad class does not change that.
On the other hand, this gives the Hawks so many options. Particularly if you can move Young for another 1-2 picks, there's incredible upside. I'm not dismissing Young's talent, as many Hawks fans are defensive of it; he's an All-NBA talent. For all the problems with his defense, usage, shot selection and play style, the man is a walking one-man top-10 offense (OK, 11th this year).
But the Trae Young era in Atlanta yielded one deep playoff run and little else.
Sarr makes a ton of sense. League sources have told Action Network the Hawks have shopped Clint Capela for the last two seasons, especially in the offseason with the intention of promoting Onyeka Okongwu to a larger role. Okongwu wasn't quite as good this season, but it's not clear how that will shape their decision making. It is easier to play Okongwu next to a player like Sarr, however.
However, with the uncertainty in this draft, the Hawks have real options. If you don't know there's a Wembanyama or even a Zion Williamson or Luka Dončić DeAndre Ayton (I guess?), then you can be open to more outside-the-box thinking like trading the No. 1 pick.
Now, there are ways that backfires. The draft isn't random — scouting matters. But outcomes with 19-year-olds can be incredible volatile to conditions beyond just the game.
The same is true for keeping the star duo or breaking them up. If Young goes to, say, San Antonio and pairs with Wembanyama for deep runs, that's a mark on the front office whether it's fair or not. Same goes if Murray goes to the Lakers.
(Young breaking with Klutch Sports last week looms extremely large in all these decisions.)
The Hawks are big winners, but the pressure to navigate this decision tree is immense. The easiest thing is the one of least resistance: keep the two guards and run it back with a No. 1 pick. That presents a wide number of pitfalls, though.
The clock's ticking, Atlanta. Choose wisely.
Winners
Washington Wizards
The worst thing to do is get the No. 2 pick in a one-player draft. The best thing to do is get the No. 2 pick in a draft without a clear No. 1. If the Wizards miss, well, bad luck, they were one spot back. But they also avoid the decision tree of trying to decipher the top pick. If the first choice isn't preferable — and it's fine to think it is — then getting second negates the difficulty of that choice.
The Wizards just need signature talent — anyone. Having the No. 2 pick means they can go to any position and build around that player. They don't need to fit them in with anyone. If the player is redundant with Jordan Poole or Kyle Kuzma, it simply doesn't matter; you can move the veteran even if you take a bath on the deal because you have the upside of the player if the pick hits.
Houston Rockets
Houston uses the Brooklyn pick and moves up to third. The pain continues for Brooklyn fans. Move them back to Jersey at this point just to get the stank off them.
But Houston will be in an interesting spot. Jalen Green continues to confound with terrible first four months of seasons and great final two months. Alperen Şengün looked like an All-Star but the team also had a great run without him. Amen Thompson was hurt and struggled early but finished strong. They might be in position for a point guard like Topić or Reed Sheppard. They can daft a big man like Clingan. They have a lot of options. But will they want to draft to augment the current roster, or draft a replacement and move off one of the young guys?
Or, like with the rest of the teams here, do they move the pick for a veteran? The Rockets want to win now. How does that guide this decision?
Losers
Detroit Pistons
Why, Lord? Why have you forsaken one of the iconic franchises in the history of the sport? In the 1980's and 2000's, the Pistons' run of success was one of the great hard-nosed success stories. And yet in consecutive drafts with the worst roster in the league, they've wound up getting bumped by the lottery, this time to fifth. Fifth!
Now, in this draft, maybe that's a blessing. Maybe they find a diamond in the rough. There are players like Nikola Topić, Matas Buzelis or Donovan Clingan (if the Pistons want to draft another center) that might be available there. But still, this just seems cruel at this point. Bear in mind, the Pistons didn't tank. They came to the No. 1 lottery spot honestly. And yet.
Charlotte Hornets & Portland Trail Blazers
Two teams that needed foundational players moved down multiple spots. Brandon Miller is a cornerstone. We don't know if LaMelo Ball will ever be healthy enough to even judge his franchise-cornerstone-worthiness. The rest of the roster is bare. That's a tough scene.
Portland needed a good hit to pair with Scoot Henderson if only to take the attention off Henderson after a miserable rookie season. Those two teams should have win totals south of 30 wins when the markets open in two months.
