Reed Sheppard is the most interesting player in the 2024 NBA Draft — and maybe the best one too.
Everyone knows at this point that this is considered to be a weak draft class that lacks stars at the top, and certainly, nobody expected Sheppard to be a star. He wasn't even a five-star Kentucky recruit. He was a legacy kid as much as anything, and a guy expected to play all four years at the school.
But that was before a breakout freshman campaign with jaw-dropping advanced numbers that quite literally broke a few formulas. Suddenly, Sheppard finds himself in the draft and in the mix right near the top.
He also finds himself atop my entire draft board, against all odds, at a mere 6-foot-3.
Let's get into Sheppard's scouting report.
Reed Sheppard NBA Draft Scouting Profile
And let's start right there with his lack of size, which would normally be virtually disqualifying for a player in the top 10. It's not just that Sheppard is 6-foot-3 in sneakers. He also has a 6-foot-3 wingspan, which is tiny by any measurement — even for point guards — in the modern NBA.
As you read below, you might think of comparing Sheppard to a glue guy connector like Tyrese Haliburton or Lonzo Ball. Those are great comps for his game, but they're also a full half-a-foot longer too, which tells you just how small Sheppard is.
That lack of size simply makes everything more difficult on a basketball court, and it typically makes a guy an absolute target defensively. We just finished watching the playoffs and you see how bad defenders get relentlessly targeted and then played right out of the rotation.
And all of history would suggest that a 6-foot-3 white American guard with a neutral wing span would absolutely fall into that category.
Based on what we saw at Kentucky this season, history might be wrong.
For starters, Sheppard may be a small guard, but he's an outstanding athlete. He measured a 42-inch vertical at the NBA Combine and had impressive sprint and shuttle times. He lacks strength and burst and obviously the size measurements are what they are, but there's an NBA athlete in that body.
There's also a savant basketball mind. The level that Reed Sheppard processes the game at, as a 19-year-old freshman, is absolutely out of this world.
Sheppard is always in the right spot, sometimes even when it seems like the wrong one. He can be a positive team defender because of his intelligence and positioning, and he's quick laterally with great hands and incredible timing.
Sheppard has an unbelievable knack for getting his hands on the ball. He had 23 blocks this season as a 6-foot-3 SEC freshman coming off the bench, and he had a whopping 82 steals. That's the highest steal rate of any high-major freshman guard since at least 2008 (probably longer since that's as far back as the database goes).
It's not just that Sheppard isn't a defensive liability. The numbers say he's a clear value add on that end of the court.
Over the final month of the season, facing eight top-100 opponents in nine games, Sheppard had a 2% block rate and a 5.2% steal rate. That's outrageous numbers for someone his size, and Kentucky leapt from 147th to 18th in Defensive Net Rating with Sheppard on the court and from 156th to 51st in turnovers forced.
Sheppard is small and will get targeted defensively, but he can hold his own and even add value on that end.
And that means he can stay on the court long enough for his immense offensive value to make an impact.
Sheppard might be the best shooting prospect I've ever evaluated.
If that sounds like hyperbole, let's let the numbers speak for themselves.
Sheppard finished the season at 69.9% True Shooting — 70% as a 6-foot-3 SEC freshman (!!) — the best mark for any freshman since at least 2008. He hit a remarkable 52% of his 3s, with a jump shot that's pure and consistent.
That includes 25-of-55 on guarded catch-and-shoot 3s (45%) and an impressive 40-of-81 on NBA 3s (49%).
He's probably not going to hit 50% of his 3s forever, but Sheppard is going to knock down shots at the next level.
He'll also be an outstanding connector and team player on offense. Again, think of someone like Haliburton or Lonzo Ball here.
Sheppard is somewhat limited on the ball. His handle is more efficient than creative, and his passing trends that direction, too. They work well enough given his hoops IQ, but he doesn't have the burst to create separation or penetrate and create on his own.
But that's focusing on what Sheppard doesn't do.
What he does do is take care of the ball at an elite level and make consistent efficient decisions that optimize his teammates and his team's chances of winning. His processing speed at this age is incredible, and his instincts help him move the ball quickly.
He also has that Lonzo pass-ahead in transition. He's just constantly creating efficient looks for his teammates.
Again, the advanced metrics are wild.
Over that same final month of the season against mostly top-100 competition, Sheppard had a 12.8 BPM on 72% True Shooting. Kentucky leapt from 41st to No. 1 in college in Adjusted Offense with Sheppard on the court during that stretch — with a huge leap in both 3s and free throws generated — and it jumped from 93rd to fourth in Net Rating overall.
For the season, Kentucky finished around +16 offensively with Sheppard on the court and also +13 defensively with him on — and remember, that's supposed to be where he's a liability.
All in, the Wildcats were +29.5 with Sheppard on the court this season, an outrageous figure.
Sheppard is not a conventional star, but he's a winning player, the sort of guy that adds value to any team.
Some players are additive. Sheppard is a force multiplier. He adds value to his team by adding value to every teammate that shares the court with him. That's a rare sort of player, and it's why I have him right there at the top of my board.
But what's the NBA comp? That part is hard. And the lack of a clear comp can scare many evaluators away. To put it bluntly, there aren't a ton of 6-foot-3 white American guards succeeding at a high level in the NBA.
Could Sheppard be a modernized Mark Price or Steve Nash? Is he the next Steph Curry? Suffice to say those are lofty comps, among the best shooters in NBA history. Is he Steve Kerr instead? Kerr was a role player but won a whole bunch of championships next to star players.
Truthfully, that's exactly the role you want Sheppard to be — not as the driving force point guard, but as a complementary force multiplier playing next to a star wing or big man handler. Luckily, the modern NBA has more and more of those guys, making Sheppard all the more valuable.
Imagine him as the "point guard" on a team with LeBron James or Giannis Antetokounmpo. That's what you want Sheppard to be.
How about Fred VanVleet? That's my favorite player comp for Sheppard.
VanVleet went undrafted but turned himself into a legit star. He was overlooked at a very similar size but adds value to his team by knocking down shots, making smart plays on both ends of the court, playing hard-nosed, positive-value defense and making every teammate he plays with better.
Everywhere VanVleet goes, he wins. And that's what I expect from Sheppard at the next level.
Of course, VanVleet also went undrafted, not at the top of the draft. That's what makes this evaluation so tricky.
But in a weak draft class crying out for star power, maybe the biggest superstar in the draft is actually the one guy who least looks the part.
