Life moves pretty fast in the NBA. We've already reached the quarter mark of the season. So, despite what you may think, it is not too early to start analyzing the race for Most Valuable Player, especially from a betting perspective. It's important to be fluid and flexible with awards markets as they can change fast and early positions can be beneficial.
There's plenty of movement in the MVP market — not only over the course of a season from start to finish, but within the peaks and valleys. The last few years afforded several opportunities to bet Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid at significantly plus numbers, only to see those numbers invert several times by season's end.
With that in mind, here's a look at the MVP tiers in terms of likelihood to win, and then we'll put together one based on value, courtesy of Tiermaker:
2024 NBA MVP Tiers
GOD MODE
Nikola Jokic
The reigning Finals MVP and two-time MVP might actually be better this season. He's averaging career highs in points and rebounds, his second-highest assists mark, and still shooting 60% eFG (57% from the field, 32% from 3). The Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Jokic will always dominate the advanced metrics because they are almost all tied to efficiency, and there isn't a more efficient player in terms of production per possession/minute/game/season/year/decade/eon. He's No.1 in Offensive and Defensive Box Plus-Minus (heavily weighed by his rebound production), EPM, Win Shares, and has the highest PER of all time. You can nitpick with the metrics individually but when they all point in this direction so conclusively, it says something.
Why he'll win: Voters will remember what they did last year, letting absolutely idiotic narratives about both Jokic and Embiid impact the votes. (Remember, "We have to see what he can do in the playoffs!" … like Joel Embiid was not a perennial second-round out? Good times.)
Jokic answered every question about him being a worthy three-time winner with a 16-4 dominant playoff run, outplaying Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, sweeping LeBron James, humiliating Anthony Davis, and outclassing Jimmy Butler. He's widely and nearly unanimously considered the best player in the world for a team that looks like it will easy win more than 50 games.
Why he won't: Jokic may not play enough games. He has only missed one game so far this season, but the team has spoken openly about the importance of getting Jokic time off during the season. Jokic may very well intend to play fewer than 65 games so he can avoid the toxic discussions he dealt with last year. He'd have to miss 17 games across the final 63 games, which would greatly impact Denver's winning percentage if he even gets close to it, despite their being 1-0 in the game Jokic missed against the Clippers.
Joel Embiid
Another reason why last year's farcical MVP vote is a shame? Embiid deserves it way more this season. He's leading the league in scoring again, doing so on good efficiency (though worse so far than last year, which may indicate he could get better), and has significantly upgraded his assists number.
Embiid's career-high for assist percentage was 23.5% coming into this season. His current assist percentage is 33%. That translates to 6.6 dimes per game compared to a career mark of 3.6, and 9.3 pace-adjusted compared to 5.4 for his career.
It matches the eye test as well. Part of this is just Nick Nurse running more DHO and better pinch post sets for Embiid to enable him, but nonetheless, Embiid is reading the floor and controlling the game in a way he never has, and that is reflected in his advanced metrics.
Why he'll win: This is his best season. He has never been as good as this, even with worse shooting efficiency, and the way he has the Sixers thriving after trading James Harden deserves a lot of credit. If the Sixers were to finish with the best record in the East, as much as Tyrese Maxey would benefit (and win Most Improved Player, which he is the current favorite for), Embiid would get the lion's share of credit. This is a closer race than last year was between him and Jokic … and he actually won last year.
Why he won't: Missing too many games and the hangover from last year. Embiid has missed three games out of 19. That puts him on pace for missing 12 games (70 games played). That doesn't leave much room for a two-week absence with knee soreness or any other ailments.
Also, some voters really put their necks out for Embiid. They staked their claim on Embiid being a more "real" MVP than Jokic for some reason. They suggested that Embiid was a better playoff player. Then Jokic did what he did, and Embiid was run out in embarrassing fashion again. (Embiid was clearly hurt after the first round, as he has been the last few years, but he was on the floor for that Game 7 against Boston and it was a disaster.)
If Embiid and Jokic finish within a handful of games of each other and both play the same amount of games (and over the 65-game minimum), will voters really say Embiid is "better" or more valuable?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Say hello to the new guy. SGA actually finished fifth in voting last year, but that was largely a product of the Mavericks tucking tail and running from playoff contention to ensure draft positioning (and getting the very good Derek Lively as a result).
SGA is right there with both Embiid and Jokic in the advanced metrics, averaging 31-6-6 on 54-35-57 shooting splits. He's also the best defender of the three. (Embiid is a very good drop defender but struggles in space. SGA is better by eye test or metric analysis.)
The Thunder are beating opponents by more with SGA on the floor than the Nuggets are with Jokic or the Sixers are with Embiid.
Why he'll win: He's the new story. If the Thunder got the 1-seed, it'll be such a surprise that voters will feel they need to recognize SGA. SGA will also be the compromise vote for those who want to abstain from the annual Joker vs. Embiid wars. He's the best "two-way" MVP candidate in the top tier. Jokic is surrounded by a title team with Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. Embiid has Maxey. SGA's second-best player is rookie Chet Holmgren and his third-best player is Jalen Williams.
Why he won't: OKC probably won't keep it up. You just don't see teams this young, without prior team success of 50+ wins, finish with enough wins for their guy to win MVP. SGA has more injury concerns than Jokic and plays a more physical style. He also doesn't have the name recognition of others. That will be an issue.
THE MONSTERS
Luka Doncic
Luka's numbers are ridiculous (31-8-8 on 49-39-79 splits). They always are. The Mavericks are 11-6 with the fifth-best offense.
But his numbers are always ridiculous. And there is a developing narrative that wonders why Luka's incredible box score stats don't match up with impact, either in wins, net rating, or the advanced metrics.
For example, the Mavericks are +1.3 in net rating with Doncic on the floor and +1.2 with Doncic on the bench. Now, those minutes with Doncic are against starters and with him trying to lift a weak bench, and the minutes without him are against bench players. But that's odd. The minutes with Luka and without Kyrie Irving are worse than the minutes with Irving and without Doncic.
It would be one thing if the narrative/feel/eye test on Luka wasn't great, but the advanced metrics were incredible. But instead, Doncic is eighth in EPM and fifth in BPM. That's really good! That's an incredible player! But it's also not top-tier.
Steph Curry
Steph Curry is shooting 43% on more than 12 3-point attempts per game, which is just insane, even for him. He's averaging 30-5-4 on the second-best shooting efficiency of his career. There's no real way to pin any of the Warriors' struggles on him. He's just been awesome.
But Golden State hasn't been. The Warriors are 9-10 and somehow have lost the Steph Curry minutes at a -1.8 net rating. Curry has played in 17 of 19 games but has had trouble staying on the floor for 65+ the last few seasons. Whether it's team success or games played, there are a number of ways he won't be able to hang at the top. But God Almighty, that man is as good a shooter as ever.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Ho-hum, 30-10-5 on career-high shooting efficiency for the two-time MVP. Giannis has a lot of runway, but he needs the Bucks to be better. His usage is down with Damian Lillard on board, which is to be expected, but that takes away from his overall production efficiency. He could make up for that with defense, but the Bucks defense has been somewhere between underwhelming and bad. Even with their record, they have to be better to get him back into the top tier.
Tyrese Haliburton
The Pacers are starting to wane a little bit win-loss-wise. They're down to third in schedule-adjusted offense. But Haliburton is still the driving engine of an absolutely incredible offensive engine. He's 27-3-12 (leading the league in assists) on 51-45-88 splits; Haliburton is evolutionary Nash, and you'll remember Steve Nash won two MVPs. Maybe the Pacers keep sliding, but the advanced metrics (Haliburton is pretty much fourth across the board in the EPM/BPM, etc.) keep him in this tier for now.
DEMI-GODS
Anthony Edwards
Case for: He's the best player on the 14-4 Wolves, if the Wolves get the 1-seed, his 26-6-6 with great defense will gain traction with some voters.
Case against: The biggest reason the Wolves win is their defense, and while Edwards is a phenomenal defender, he's the third-best defender on his own team at best.
Jayson Tatum
Case for: Taytum is the best player on the best team. The Celtics could win 60-plus games and those teams are hard not to reward. Joe Mazzulla is very unlikely to win Coach of the Year in that case. The Celtics are +11 in Tatum's minutes, eight points better with him on-court than off.
Case against: The box score stuff just isn't there. Sure 28-9-4 on 49-36-81 splits is awesome, and 10 years ago he runs away with it. But his points and rebounds are down even as his shooting efficiency is up. If Tatum ramps up, however, he'll wedge his way into Tier 1.
Devin Booker
NOTE: Booker gets the edge over KD here. KD has been the better player on the Suns this season but Booker is the more impactful player despite Durant's absolutely insane shooting splits. I'm not 100% sold on this, however. It might be KD.
Case for: If the Suns take off, Booker's overall game will get him in that conversation. He's missed some time but not enough to keep him out of the discussion yet.
Case against: Might not be the best player on the team, and the team hasn't been great so far.
LeBron James
Case for: Lifetime achievement for a guy who is keeping his team afloat almost single-handedly if the plus-minus stuff is to be believed. The Lakers are +5.1 with James on-court and -13.2 without him. They go from a solid playoff team to the worst team in the league without him. And 25-8-6 on 56-40-70 splits isn't too shabby, either.
Case against: His numbers are starting to slide a bit. He gets an exemption as a veteran from the 65-game minimum, but those will still count against him with voters, and he's said he'll miss games for Bronny's games at USC, not to mention injuries. Plus, the Lakers, at 11-9, still aren't very good (though better than Curry's Warriors so far).
De'Aaron Fox
Case for: He's averaging 31-5-6, and the Kings are 7-2 when they are not on a back-to-back when he plays. Great defender on a bad defensive team and one of the best feel-good stories if the Kings can keep it up
Case against: He's unlikely to keep up his stats based on his career, and Sacramento seems likely to regress, just a little bit, in the win-loss column.
THE OTHER GUYS
Donovan Mitchell
The Cavs are disappointing, but Mitchell is putting together another incredible offensive season despite missing key guys seemingly every night.
Bam Adebayo
More aggressive Bam! He's 22-10-4 on great efficiency for the surging Heat, along with his usual elite defense. The Heat have been outscored with him on the floor, however.
Alperen Sengun
Look, I don't expect him to make it to next month's list, but he's the best player on the surprising Rockets (who are backsliding the last two weeks), and he grades out on all the advanced numbers. The work he did on improving core strength this summer really paid off.
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2024 NBA MVP Value Picks
Here's the best value for betting MVP:
The market thinks Jokic is running away with it. He's +150 or shorter right now. And while if the vote were held today, Jokic would win, we have to admit that for whatever reason, voters put more hurdles in front of voting for him than ever. If you're betting on anyone, you need to put some money on Joker to hedge.
But SGA is 11-1 or better, Embiid 7-1 or better, and they are close enough that the gap between Joker and those two is wrong. I think betting all three with a Joker bet financing the other two is a good portfolio position currently.
If you're looking for longshots, the buy-low spots are Tatum and Antetokounmpo. If Tatum gets back to averaging 30, with his level of defense, for a team that again looks poised to win 60+ games, he's going to get top-five votes. Giannis' box score numbers are terrific. If you think the Bucks will figure out their defensive issues and that coaching won't drag down the team's performance, you'll get CLV on him.
Do I think Antetokounmpo will win if everyone is healthy or eligible? No, but he's absolutely good enough to be there at the end if plot twists occur at the top.
Curry and Haliburton have the best-advanced metrics cases, but their teams aren't good enough, so if you think they're going to be serious MVP contenders, you should be HAMMERING regular-season futures on their teams.
The market continues to believe Luka Doncic should be at the top, and I currently don't think that's reflective of what voter sentiment would be. However, if the win margin, team performance, and impact numbers improve, Doncic has already laid a baseline of box score performance to get him into the top three with an outside chance. Basically, Luka is not a bad bet. He never is. He's just not the best bet right now.
